A developing Super El Nino could peak in November-December 2026, with scientists warning of record ocean heat, rising global temperatures and increased extreme weather risks.
A developing El Nino in the tropical Pacific is showing signs of becoming an exceptionally powerful event, with climate analysts warning that it could reach its peak around November and December 2026.
The warming Pacific could have effects far beyond the region, influencing global temperatures, rainfall, droughts, heatwaves and flood risks as the phenomenon develops.
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El Nino is already showing strong signals
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have entered what climate analyst Colin McCarthy described as “Super El Nino” territory. Researchers are also monitoring a large volume of heat stored beneath the ocean surface.
According to the projections cited in the reports, subsurface heat content in the tropical Pacific is already higher than levels recorded during major El Nino events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
McCarthy said the developing event is breaking records across several indicators, including the pace of warming, projected intensity and the amount of heat stored beneath the Pacific.
El Nino could peak in November-December
El Nino occurs when unusually warm waters spread across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, triggering changes in atmospheric circulation around the world.
The current event is expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026, with its intensity potentially reaching a peak around November and December.
McCarthy has described the projected event as potentially the strongest El Nino experienced by people currently alive.
The combination of a powerful El Nino and continued human-driven climate change could push global temperatures even higher.
The reports cite projections that global average temperatures could temporarily approach 2°C above pre-industrial levels in early 2027. Researchers warn that such conditions could coincide with unusually severe climate and weather events.
Extreme weather risks could increase
The strengthening El Nino could influence weather patterns across several regions during the next 12 to 18 months.
Potential impacts include more intense heatwaves, changes in monsoon patterns, drought conditions in some areas and increased flood risks elsewhere. The precise effects will vary by region and remain difficult to predict this far in advance.
The unusually large amount of heat stored beneath the Pacific is one of the key factors being watched by researchers. If that heat reaches the surface, it could provide additional energy for the developing El Nino.
The coming months will therefore be important for determining whether current forecasts of an exceptionally strong event are realised.
Analysis and explainer
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern, but its effects can be amplified or altered by the background warming of the planet. A strong event can temporarily raise global temperatures while disrupting established rainfall and atmospheric patterns.
For India and other monsoon-dependent regions, the main concern is not simply whether rainfall will increase or decrease, but how its timing and distribution may change. However, regional outcomes cannot be determined solely from the strength of El Nino and will depend on other atmospheric and oceanic factors.
The November-December period will provide a clearer indication of the event's eventual strength and its wider consequences.
Published: 16 Aug 2026, 02:27 pm IST
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