Kerala’s hydroelectric reservoirs are currently holding only around 21% of their storage capacity, despite the state receiving excess rainfall in the initial phase of the southwest monsoon.

The low water levels have triggered concern within the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB), especially after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the arrival of El Nino conditions.

The state meets nearly 75% of its electricity demand through purchases from the Central Grid and private power producers, while the remaining power comes from hydroelectric projects including Idukki, Sabarigiri and Idamalayar. With reservoir storage remaining low, officials fear a weak monsoon could further reduce hydropower generation.

El Nino raises concern for power sector

According to the IMD, El Nino conditions have been confirmed after the three-month average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean crossed the threshold of 0.5 degrees Celsius.

Meteorologists warn that El Nino has historically affected the southwest monsoon and could lead to below-normal rainfall in parts of India.

The IMD has projected a monsoon deficit of around 10%, although a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) later in the season could partly offset the impact.

IMD Thiruvananthapuram Director Neetha K Gopal said El Nino can weaken monsoon winds and, in some cases, alter rainfall patterns. At the same time, it may also trigger localised extreme weather events such as cloudbursts.

KSEB may depend more on outside power

Kerala's average daily power consumption has fallen from 118 million units in late April to around 85 million units following the onset of monsoon.

However, KSEB officials say current reservoir storage can support generation of only about 851 million units of electricity.

Officials said that if monsoon rainfall weakens and inflows into reservoirs decline, the state will have to depend more heavily on electricity purchased from the Central Grid and private suppliers.

To prepare for such a scenario, KSEB has already invited tenders for short-term power purchases from June to December.

The tender process is expected to begin after June 15, and additional purchases can be made subject to approval from the State Electricity Regulatory Commission.

The board had earlier procured extra power through short-term purchases to meet the summer demand surge. Peak demand, which crossed 6,000 MW in early May, has now fallen to around 4,500 MW with the arrival of monsoon rains.