What a Democratic Congress could mean for India's trade, H-1B visas and ties with the US

Washington: The Democratic Party's victory in the 2026 US midterm elections, giving it control of both chambers of Congress, could have implications for India, particularly in trade, immigration and bilateral relations. While the outcome does not automatically change US foreign policy, it gives Democrats greater influence over legislation, government spending and scrutiny of President Donald Trump's administration.

The Democrats' gains in the Senate and House of Representatives mark a setback for Trump, who had urged voters to treat the midterms as a referendum on his second term. Discontent over the cost of living, tariffs and the US war against Iran, which has pushed fuel prices higher, weighed on Republican candidates.

According to The Associated Press Voter Poll, many voters blamed the Trump administration for rising costs and wanted Congress to exercise greater oversight over the president.

For India, the change in congressional control could affect several areas of its relationship with Washington.

Trade and tariffs

The US is one of India's major trading partners, making American tariff policy an important concern for Indian exporters. A change in the political balance in Congress could bring greater scrutiny of Trump's trade decisions and trigger fresh debates over tariffs.

In February, the two countries announced a framework for an interim trade agreement. Under the proposed arrangement, the US agreed to impose an 18 per cent reciprocal tariff on goods originating in India.

However, the US Supreme Court subsequently struck down Trump's use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs on trading partners, bringing the applicable tariff rate down to a baseline of 10 per cent.

A comprehensive India-US trade agreement, meanwhile, remains under negotiation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier this month that the agreement was close to finalisation.

A Democratic-controlled Congress could increase pressure for greater scrutiny of the administration's trade policy. However, the extent to which lawmakers can influence tariff decisions will depend on the legislation involved and the president's response.

H-1B visas and immigration

The election outcome could also matter to Indian professionals working in the US, particularly those dependent on H-1B visas.

Democrats gaining control of Congress could lead to closer scrutiny of immigration policies and proposals affecting foreign workers. It could also make it more difficult for the administration to secure legislative support for further restrictions.

However, the change in congressional control does not automatically reverse Trump's executive actions or presidential proclamations on immigration.

This includes the $100,000 fee for certain new H-1B visa applications announced by the administration in September. Any attempt to change such measures would depend on the legal and executive processes involved.

For Indian technology professionals and companies that rely on skilled foreign workers, the immediate impact is therefore likely to depend on how the administration implements its existing policies and whether Congress takes up new immigration legislation.

US support for India and bilateral relations

Democratic control of both chambers could also bring greater congressional scrutiny of the Trump administration's foreign policy, including its approach towards India.

Congress has an important role in approving funding, defence-related legislation and certain international agreements. Lawmakers can also hold hearings and investigations that influence the political debate surrounding US relations with other countries.

However, the president retains considerable authority over foreign policy and can veto legislation passed by Congress. The Senate filibuster could also make it difficult to pass certain measures without broader political support.

For India, this means that changes in congressional control may influence the debate around defence cooperation, trade and strategic ties, but they do not necessarily signal an immediate shift in Washington's position towards New Delhi.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that even if Democrats gained control of the House, there would be "very little" they could do to block Trump's agenda.

What changes with a Democratic Congress?

The Democrats' victory gives the party greater power to shape legislative priorities, scrutinise the administration and influence government spending. It could also make it harder for Trump to push through his domestic policy agenda without opposition.

For India, the key areas to watch will be the future of the trade agreement, changes to immigration policy and the direction of defence and strategic cooperation.

Although Congress cannot independently take control of US foreign policy, its new political composition could influence the decisions and debates that shape the India-US relationship.