Baku: Aviation experts on Thursday suggested that the Russian air defence systems may have been responsible for the tragic crash of an Azerbaijani plane the previous day, which killed 38 people and left 29 survivors injured.
The Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190, en route from Baku to Grozny in Russia, was diverted under unclear circumstances. After flying eastward across the Caspian Sea, the plane attempted an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan, but crashed around 3 kilometers from the airport. Disturbing footage online showed the aircraft descending steeply before crashing in a fireball, with part of the fuselage torn away from the wings.
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Azerbaijan observed national mourning on Thursday, with flags at half-mast and a moment of silence across the country. Public transport and traffic halted at noon, and sirens sounded from ships and trains as the nation paid tribute to the crash victims.
While Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev urged caution in speculating about the crash, weather conditions were noted to have caused the plane’s diversion. “The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.
Russia's civil aviation authority suggested a bird strike forced the emergency landing. However, officials in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia remained tight-lipped about the exact cause.
Allegations of Russian air defence fire
Azerbaijani lawmaker Rasim Musabekov pointed to Russia, claiming the plane was shot at while flying over Grozny. “Those who did this must face criminal charges,” Musabekov was quoted by Turan as saying, adding that compensations to the victims should also be paid. “If it doesn't happen, relations will be affected.”
Experts noted that damage to the plane’s tail section suggested it might have been struck by Russian surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), possibly deployed to defend against a Ukrainian drone attack. Ukrainian drones had previously targeted Grozny and other North Caucasus areas. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.
Mark Zee from OPSGroup indicated that evidence from the crash site suggested the aircraft was almost certainly hit by a SAM. “Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war. “This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson posted online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Independent Russian military expert Yan Matveyev also pointed out that the damage was consistent with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missile like the Pantsyr-S1 system. “It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit. “Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.
Discrepancies in the incident's timeline
Azerbaijani news outlet Caliber, citing government sources, claimed the plane was fired upon by a Russian air defence system while approaching Grozny. The outlet raised questions about why Russian authorities didn’t allow the plane to land in Grozny or other nearby airports after it was hit. Meanwhile, Chechnya’s Security Council head confirmed that Russian air defences had downed drones attacking the region on the same day.
Experts and officials disagree
Kazakhstan's parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, dismissed the allegations as unsubstantiated, urging caution and calling the claims unethical. While investigations continue, the cause of the crash remains under scrutiny.
The plane’s passengers included 42 Azerbaijanis, 16 Russians, 6 Kazakhs, and 3 Kyrgyz nationals. Russian survivors are being flown to Moscow for medical treatment.
Agency
Published: 27 Dec 2024, 09:48 am IST
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