A warning from the World Bank: Is Pakistan’s job crunch pushing it toward unrest?

Pakistan’s worsening unemployment crisis is pushing the country toward a dangerous crossroads, with experts warning that rising joblessness could fuel both internal unrest and a steady exodus of skilled workers.  

As millions of young people enter a sluggish economy marked by policy uncertainty and repeated financial shocks, Pakistan is struggling to create enough jobs to absorb its growing workforce. Estimates suggest the country needs to add nearly 25–30 million jobs over the next decade, a target that appears increasingly out of reach.

An editorial in The Express Tribune cautioned that without strong private-sector growth, employment generation on this scale is unrealistic. It warned that widening inequality could accelerate outward migration, draining Pakistan of its human capital.

The concern has also been echoed by Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank, who recently said Pakistan risks becoming a source of economic and social instability if job creation does not keep pace with population growth.

Signs of stress are already evident. In 2025 alone, nearly 4,000 doctors reportedly left Pakistan, the highest annual outflow on record, as professionals cited poor working conditions, low pay, and limited career opportunities.

The broader migration trend is even starker. More than 7.6 lakh Pakistanis sought employment abroad in 2025, according to the finance ministry’s Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for January 2026, underscoring the lack of domestic opportunities.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is balancing an IMF stabilisation programme alongside preparations for a 10-year Country Partnership Framework with the World Bank, which could bring in roughly $4 billion annually through public and private financing.

The framework acknowledges that while the state’s fiscal capacity is constrained, the private sector already accounts for nearly 90 per cent of employment.

Despite a growing pool of freelancers and entrepreneurial talent, the report noted that most are unable to scale their ventures due to limited access to credit, weak infrastructure, and regulatory hurdles.

With exports, foreign investment and overall growth underperforming, analysts warn that unless Pakistan can unlock private-sector job creation, economic pressures could increasingly spill over into social and political instability.