Dubai: Iran and Russia conducted joint naval exercises on Thursday as a second American aircraft carrier moved toward the region, with both Washington and Tehran signalling a readiness for conflict should nuclear negotiations in Geneva fail to reach a breakthrough.

US President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters on Air Force One, indicated that a window of 10 to 15 days is "enough time" for Iran to secure a deal. Despite the ultimatum, talks remain deadlocked by long-standing disputes over U.S. and Israeli demands that Tehran dismantle its missile program and end its support for regional militant groups—concessions Iran has consistently refused to make.

Escalating Brinkmanship

The current standoff follows a year of significant pressure on Iran’s leadership, including a 12-day wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear and military infrastructure last June, dubbed "Operation Midnight Hammer", and the violent suppression of mass internal protests in January.

Military activities on both sides have intensified this week:

  • Strait of Hormuz: Iran conducted live-fire drills in the strategic waterway, which handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, nearly one-fifth of global consumption.
  • U.S. Buildup: The USS Gerald R. Ford is currently transiting the Atlantic, expected to join the USS Abraham Lincoln in the region within days. The Pentagon has also deployed 50 additional combat aircraft, including F-35s and F-22s, to bases in the Persian Gulf.
  • Joint Exercises: Iranian and Russian forces practised ship-boarding and maritime coordination in the Gulf of Oman, with Tehran issuing rocket-fire warnings to civilian pilots in the area.

Internal and Diplomatic Turmoil

Internal tensions in Iran are also rising as citizens mark the 40th day of mourning for those killed during recent anti-government protests. In response to the volatility, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk issued an urgent appeal for Polish citizens to depart Iran immediately. "In a few, a dozen, or several dozen hours, the possibility of evacuation will be out of the question," Tusk warned, though he did not provide specific intelligence.

Similarly, the German military has begun relocating non-essential personnel from northern Iraq, citing the deteriorating regional security environment.

The "Meaningful Deal" Ultimatum

While the White House confirmed that Tehran has agreed to draft a written proposal addressing U.S. concerns, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted that the two nations remain "far apart."

“It’s proven to be, over the years, not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran, and we have to make a meaningful deal. Otherwise, bad things happen,” Trump said Thursday during the inaugural meeting of his "Board of Peace."

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that his military is prepared for all scenarios, including retaliatory strikes from Iran. "If Iran attacks Israel, they will experience a response they cannot even imagine," Netanyahu said.

As the mid-March deadline for a full U.S. military "readiness posture" approaches, the shadow of the 2015 JCPOA looms. While the Trump administration claims its June strikes "obliterated" Iran's nuclear sites, the lack of international inspectors means the true state of Tehran's enrichment capabilities remains a subject of intense global debate.

With inputs from AP