India’s aviation aspirations are finding global endorsement, with Embraer’s Market Outlook 2025 echoing what Indian policymakers have long championed, the next wave of growth lies in regional, right-sized air connectivity.

Released just ahead of the Paris Air Show, the 20-year forecast sees demand for 10,500 new jets and turboprops globally in the sub-150-seat category, valued at $680 billion. While North America will lead in deliveries and China in passenger growth, the trends Embraer identifies, including regional fleet expansion, connectivity imperatives, and mixed-fleet strategies, find deep resonance in India’s UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik) mission.

A Tailwind for Tier II and III cities

India’s focus on connecting smaller cities and remote regions via UDAN routes mirrors Embraer’s emphasis on versatility and accessibility. The Brazilian OEM’s forecast calls for 8,720 regional jets and 1,780 turboprops through 2044, aircraft types best suited for India’s high-cycle, short-sector routes between cities like Belgaum, Salem, Jorhat, and Kolhapur.

The success of UDAN with over 500 new routes and dozens of airport revivals reinforces the need for aircraft that balance capacity, cost-efficiency, and flexible operations. Embraer’s E-Jet E2 series and turboprops offer that balance, providing Indian carriers with fleet options that can thrive in low-density, high-frequency environments.

Regional aviation

India’s domestic MRO sector stands to benefit from this transformation as smaller jets demand higher maintenance frequency, particularly line and light checks at emerging regional airports. Besides OEM partnerships, “Make in India” localisation efforts may deepen, especially for component repair and technical training.

The anticipated rise in freighter conversions, also highlighted in the report, opens new doors for cargo MRO hubs in India, especially in states with strong logistics bases like Maharashtra and Gujarat.

Traffic growth and market share shifts

Globally, passenger traffic (RPK) is expected to grow at 3.9% annually through 2044, with China leading at 5.7% CAGR, followed by Latin America (4.7%) and Africa/Middle East (4.4%). While India is grouped under Asia-Pacific (4.1%), the report hints at significant sub-regional potential, given India's demographics and air travel momentum.

By 2044:

  • Asia-Pacific will hold 39% of the global RPK share.
  • Europe and North America will account for 37%.

India, poised to become the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market, will play a critical role in this growth and in shaping the future of sub-150-seat aircraft operations.