The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday issued a yellow alert for several districts in Kerala, forecasting isolated heavy rainfall over the next five days. This comes as the southwest monsoon withdraws from the remaining parts of the country, paving the way for the onset of the northeast monsoon.

According to the IMD bulletin, the alerts are as follows:

  • October 14 (Tuesday): Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, and Thrissur.
  • October 15 (Wednesday): Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki, and Ernakulam.
  • October 16 (Thursday) and October 17 (Friday): Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, and Thrissur.
  • October 18 (Saturday): Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, and Wayanad.

The IMD said that the yellow alert indicates the likelihood of isolated heavy rainfall, which means precipitation ranging between 64.5 mm and 115.5 mm within 24 hours. Residents in the alerted districts have been advised to remain cautious during this period.

Why Kerala is witnessing more rain

Meteorologists attribute the ongoing rain to multiple weather systems. An upper air cyclonic circulation currently lies over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Equatorial Ocean, which is likely to move west-northwest towards the Comorin area. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep region around October 19, leading to intensified rainfall along the Kerala and south Karnataka coasts.

Additionally, the setting in of easterly and northeasterly winds over the southern peninsula and adjoining central Bay of Bengal signals the beginning of the northeast monsoon, which typically brings widespread rains to Kerala and Tamil Nadu during October–December.

The IMD has confirmed that the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from most parts of the country, including Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and the northeastern states. Conditions remain favourable for its complete withdrawal within the next two days, after which the northeast monsoon rainfall activity is likely to commence over the southeast peninsular region.

Residents, especially in coastal and hilly regions of Kerala, have been advised to stay alert for possible heavy rainfall and waterlogging in the coming days.