Thiruvananthapuram: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its five-day weather forecast, predicting major rainfall across several regions of Kerala. To ensure public safety and preparedness, the department has placed several districts under a yellow alert, signifying a need to "stay updated" on evolving conditions.

Yellow alert details for April 29, 2026

A Yellow Alert has been officially declared for the following districts on 29/04/2026:

  • Pathanamthitta
  • Idukki
  • Kannur
  • Kasaragod

The IMD anticipates isolated heavy rainfall in these areas. Under these meteorological criteria, "heavy rainfall" is defined as a recorded accumulation ranging from 64.5 mm to 115.5 mm within a 24-hour period.

Climate context: The El Nino influence

These unexpected shifts in summer precipitation patterns come at a time when global climate models are closely monitoring the El Nino phenomenon. El Nino involves the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a process that historically disrupts the Indian monsoon cycle.

In early 2026, weather experts noted a transition from a weakening La Nina to ENSO-neutral conditions, with a high probability of a strong El Nino developing by mid-year. While El Nino often leads to a suppression of the primary Southwest Monsoon (June–September), its onset phase can cause volatile pre-monsoon weather.

The current atmospheric instability over Kerala, marked by these heavy isolated showers and heatwave warnings in neighbouring districts, reflects the complex interplay between rising ocean temperatures and local pressure systems. As the El Nino "shadow" looms over the 2026 monsoon season, authorities are urging citizens to remain vigilant against both sudden intense downpours and the extreme heat typical of this transition period.