New Delhi: India could experience 30 fewer extremely hot days each year if countries meet their current emissions pledges under the Paris Agreement and limit global warming to 2.6°C this century, according to a new study released on Thursday. The analysis also found that, globally, the number of such scorching days could fall by an average of 57 per year.

The study, conducted by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution, marks 10 years since the adoption of the 2015 Paris Agreement. While it concludes that the agreement is guiding the world toward a safer climate future, the researchers warned that the current pace of climate action remains insufficient.

Without the Paris Agreement, global temperatures could have been on track to rise by 4°C, which would have resulted in an average of 114 extremely hot days per year. By contrast, limiting warming to 2.6°C would reduce this figure significantly.

The country-level analysis showed that India could see 30 fewer extremely hot days annually, with the decreased rate in other countries as shown below.

  • Kenya: 82 fewer
  • Mexico: 77 fewer
  • Brazil: 69 fewer
  • Egypt: 36 fewer
  • US: 30 fewer
  • UK: 29 fewer

The study also reviewed six recent extreme heat events across regions including southern Europe, the Amazon, West Africa, and Asia. It found that such events would become 5 to 75 times more likely at 4°C of warming, and 3 to 35 times more likely even at 2.6°C.

Global warming still on the rise

Despite some progress, scientists emphasised that global warming has already exceeded 1.3°C, with emissions continuing to rise. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide saw its largest recorded annual increase between 2023 and 2024 — a jump of 3.5 parts per million.

Professor Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said,” The Paris Agreement remains a powerful, legally binding framework for avoiding the most extreme impacts of climate change. However, she stressed that countries need to do more to shift away from oil, gas, and coal.”

“Every fraction of a degree matters,” she added. “Whether it is 1.4, 1.5, or 1.7°C of warming will mean the difference between safety and suffering for millions of people.”

Kristina Dahl, Vice President for Science at Climate Central, echoed this urgency. “The Paris Agreement is helping many regions avoid the worst-case scenarios, but make no mistake — we are still heading toward a dangerously hot future. Even today, the world is struggling to cope with just 1.3°C of warming.”

Heatwaves already intensifying

The report noted that since 2015, just 0.3°C of additional warming has resulted in 11 more extremely hot days globally per year. In India and Pakistan, heatwaves have become twice as likely, and in the Amazon, they are now 10 times more likely.

While adaptation measures are improving, with nearly half of all countries now having early warning systems and at least 47 nations implementing heat action plans, the study warned that many low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America still lack such systems.

Dr Joyce Kimutai of Imperial College London called on wealthier nations to lead with greater urgency, noting that “cutting emissions alone won’t be enough.” She urged a tripling of adaptation efforts to protect lives and livelihoods in vulnerable regions.

Bernadette Woods Placky, Chief Meteorologist at Climate Central, summed up the study’s key message: “The Paris Agreement works. It shows that when countries come together, they can accelerate emission cuts for a safer future. But we must move much faster.”

Researchers concluded that the most effective way to shield communities from worsening heat is to urgently transition away from coal, oil, and gas — the primary drivers of the climate crisis.

 

PTI