Exit poll projections across five states suggest a mixed political outcome, with the BJP likely retaining Assam, the UDF projected to return in Kerala, and the DMK expected to continue its dominance in Tamil Nadu.
Exit polls released on Wenesday concluded across Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry indicate a highly varied political outcome, with no single national pattern emerging.
While the BJP appears strong in Assam, the Congress-led UDF is projected to make a comeback in Kerala, and regional parties continue to dominate in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.
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Assam: BJP set for strong performance
Most pollsters, including Axis My India and Matrize, project a decisive win for the BJP-led NDA in Assam. Estimates range between 85–100 seats for the ruling alliance in the 126-member Assembly, well above the majority mark of 64. The Congress and its allies are projected to remain in the opposition with significantly fewer seats.
Kerala: UDF ahead in tight contest
In Kerala, exit polls suggest a closely fought battle between the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF. Most projections, including Axis My India and People’s Pulse, place the UDF ahead with 70–90 seats, while the LDF trails closely in the 49–65 range. The BJP-led NDA is expected to remain marginal with up to 3 seats. The majority mark in Kerala is 71 seats.
West Bengal: split projections
West Bengal shows divergent predictions. Some pollsters like People’s Pulse project a TMC victory, while others such as Matrize and P-Marq suggest a strong BJP performance. The TMC is projected in the range of 118–187 seats, while the BJP is estimated between 95–175 seats in different surveys, making the final outcome highly uncertain. The majority mark is 148 seats.
Tamil Nadu: DMK retains edge
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls largely project a return for the DMK-led alliance. Estimates place the DMK in the range of 122–145 seats, while the AIADMK-BJP combine is projected between 65–100 seats. Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is also expected to make a debut impact with a limited number of seats. The majority mark is 118.
Puducherry: NDA advantage
In Puducherry, the NDA led by the AINRC is projected to retain power. Polls suggest 16–20 seats for the NDA in the 30-member Assembly, while the Congress-DMK alliance is expected to trail significantly.
Overall, exit poll trends point to a politically diverse outcome across states, with strong regional variations and no unified national wave. Final results will be declared on May 4, which will confirm whether these projections match voter sentiment on the ground.
Published: 29 Apr 2026, 08:38 pm IST
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