Thiruvananthapuram: The Kerala Assembly election exit polls have placed the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) ahead of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), with multiple agencies indicating an opposition advantage in the 140-member House.

People’s Pulse

  • UDF: 75-85 seats
  • LDF: 55-65 seats
  • NDA: 0-3 seats

Matrize Exit Poll

  • UDF: 70-75 seats
  • LDF: 60-65 seats
  • NDA: 3-5 seats

CNN-18

  • UDF: 70-80 seats
  • LDF: 58-68 seats
  • BJP/NDA: 0-4 seats

P-Mark

  • UDF: 71-79 seats
  • LDF: 62-69 seats
  • NDA: 1-4 seats

JVC-Times Now

  • UDF: 72-84
  • LDF: 52-61
  • NDA: 3-7

NDTV

  • UDF: 75-85
  • LDF: 55-65
  • NDA: 0-3

Axis My India

  • UDF: 78-90
  • LDF: 49-62
  • NDA: 0-3

Today’s Chanakya

  • UDF: 72-80
  • LDF: 60-65
  • NDA: 3-7

Most early projections suggest the UDF is on course to cross the majority mark of 71 seats, pointing to a possible return to power in Kerala. The ruling LDF, however, remains competitive in several forecasts, indicating a closely fought contest in many constituencies.

The BJP-led NDA is projected to open its account in some surveys, with estimates ranging from zero to five seats.

The LDF had won the 2021 polls and broken the trend of the state having a change of government every five years. The last polls were a setback for UDF and exit poll predictions will be music to the ears of the leaders of the Congress-led alliance.

LDF had won 99 out of 140 seats in the 2021 polls with CPI-M winning 62. Pinarayi Vijayan became Chief Minister for another term.

More exit poll numbers are expected later in the evening, while the final verdict will be known when votes are counted on May 4.

Voting for all 140 assembly constituencies in Kerala was held in a single phase on April 9, with the state recording an estimated turnout of around 78 per cent, reflecting strong voter participation across regions.

Exit poll results are expected after 6.30 pm on April 29, once the Election Commission lifts the embargo on publication of survey projections. The estimates are likely to offer the first broad indication of the possible electoral outcome ahead of the official counting of votes on May 4.

The projections will include likely seat tallies, vote share estimates and regional voting trends. Major survey agencies such as CVoter, Axis My India, Ipsos, Jan Ki Baat and Today's Chanakya are expected to publish their findings. Since each agency follows its own methodology and sampling pattern, variations in projections are common. Political analysts often compare multiple exit polls to identify broader trends.

The main contest in Kerala remains between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF), while the BJP-led NDA is looking to expand its footprint in the state. Several constituencies in central and northern Kerala are seen as key battlegrounds in what is expected to be a closely fought election.

Also read | CPM claims 78 seats, Congress confident of 80; NDA hopeful too — whose calculations will go wrong?

The LDF is seeking another term in office, while the UDF is aiming for a comeback. The NDA, though historically a smaller player in Kerala politics, is hoping to improve its vote share and challenge the traditional bipolar contest.

Exit polls are based on post-voting voter surveys and indicate possible trends rather than confirmed outcomes. The final verdict will emerge on May 4 when ballots are counted. Until then, the projections are set to dominate political discussions across the state.