Exit poll predictions for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly Election indicate a competitive but BJP-leaning contest, with most survey agencies forecasting an advantage for the saffron party while a few project a strong performance by the Trinamool Congress (TMC). The figures were released shortly after polling for the second and final phase concluded on Wednesday.

Exit Poll Highlights (West Bengal Assembly Election 2026):

P Marq Exit Poll

  • TMC - 118-138
  • BJP - 150-175
  • Congress - 02-06

P-MARQ’s exit poll numbers indicate that the BJP is heading for a clear majority.

Matrize Exit poll

  • TMC: 125-140
  • BJP: 146-161
  • Others: 6-10

Matrize’s exit poll figures suggest that the BJP holds a clear edge in the contest.

People’s Pulse Exit Poll

  • TMC: 177-187
  • BJP: 95-110
  • Congress: 1-3
  • Others: 0-2

People’s Pulse projects a contrasting picture, predicting a clear win for the Trinamool Congress.

JVC Exit Poll

  • TMC: 131-152
  • BJP: 138-159
  • Congress: 0-2
  • Others: 0-2

JVC’s projections indicate the BJP winning by a slight margin over the Trinamool Congress.

Chanakya Strategies Exit Poll

  • TMC: 130-140
  • BJP: 150-160
  • Others: 6-10

Chanakya Strategies’ forecast shows the BJP emerging as the winner.

Poll Diary 

  • TMC: 99-127
  • BJP: 142-171
  • Others: 0-1

Poll Diary’s estimates also show the BJP holds a noticeable edge in the contest.

West Bengal election voter turnout

West Bengal recorded a voter turnout of 89.99% till 5 PM on Wednesday amid the ongoing second phase of polling for the assembly elections. According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), Purba Bardhaman district topped the charts with the highest voter turnout of 83.11% so far, with Hooghly following with 80.77% turnout. Nadia district recorded a turnout of 79.79% while Kolkata North and South recorded 78% and 75.38% voter turnout, respectively, during the same period. Additionally, South 24 Paraganas also saw massive participation of people with 76.75% voter turnout. 

By 3 pm, West Bengal registered 78.68% voter turnout in the second phase, reflecting sustained public participation. According to the Election Commission of India, Purba Bardhaman led with 83.11%, followed by Hooghly at 80.77%. Nadia reported 79.79%, while Kolkata North and Kolkata South logged 78% and 75.38%, respectively. South 24 Parganas also saw heavy polling, recording 76.75%.

This phase is widely regarded as a crucial “litmus test” for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), with voting shifting to the party’s traditional strongholds in South Bengal and Kolkata. The main electoral contest remains firmly between the TMC and the BJP, setting the stage for a closely watched outcome.

The state witnessed an impressive 93.19% turnout during the first phase on 23 April, covering 152 constituencies. Today’s concluding phase spanned 142 constituencies, with more than 78% of the 3.21 crore electorate casting their ballots by mid-afternoon.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remarked that voters were participating in a “fearless atmosphere”, something he said was previously “unimaginable” for several decades. He added that the May 4 results would “further strengthen the resolve of a developed India,” calling the polling process a testament to the robustness of the Constitution and democracy.

Past trends

The elections come five years after the Trinamool Congress swept the 2021 assembly polls, winning 213 of 292 seats, while the BJP secured 77. One seat each went to an Independent and the Rashtriya Secular Majlis Party, with the Left-Congress-ISF alliance failing to make an impact.

With the political landscape transformed since then and the ruling TMC seeking to defend its bastions, the 2026 exit polls carry heightened significance. Official counting will take place on 4 May, when the state learns whether the governing party retains its dominance or the BJP mounts a breakthrough.