The first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections on November 6 will witness an intense contest across 121 constituencies, many of them lying south of the Ganga — the heartland that has often determined the pulse of Bihar politics. 

In 2020, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) — a coalition of RJD, Congress, and Left parties — had an upper hand here, bagging 63 seats to the NDA’s 55. However, five years later, the script looks more complex.

The NDA, led by the BJP and JD(U), has unleashed an aggressive campaign blitz, betting on its formidable machinery and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma to reclaim lost ground.

Modi’s Show of Strength in Patna

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s spectacular roadshow in Patna set the tone for the campaign. Streets overflowed with cheering crowds, particularly women, waving saffron flags and showering petals — a scene the BJP hopes to replicate across the belt.

Modi’s message was simple but sharp: “20 years of Nitish, 11 years of Modi — together we deliver.” The absence of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar at the roadshow was noted, but his welfare legacy — from women’s empowerment to prohibition — remains central to NDA’s emotional connect.

The BJP has also fielded a galaxy of Union ministers and chief ministers from other states, turning Bihar’s campaign into a national BJP spectacle, while JD(U) works to hold its traditional base among women and EBCs.

Rahul’s Faltering Push and the Mahagathbandhan’s Dilemma

On the other side, Rahul Gandhi and the Mahagathbandhan are striving to recapture their 2020 momentum. Rahul’s 16-day ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ had stirred some excitement, amplified by his “Vote Chori Band Karo” slogan.

However, his subsequent absence from the campaign trail for nearly two months left party workers deflated. His return, marked by a photo-op swim with fishermen and boatmen of the Mallah (Nishad) community, created viral moments — but may yield more traction in Phase 2 regions like Darbhanga and Madhubani, rather than in the Phase 1 South Bihar seats.

Tejashwi Yadav, meanwhile, has focused relentlessly on jobs, promising one government job for every household — a pledge that has resonated with unemployed youth but drawn skepticism over feasibility.

The Mahagathbandhan also faces internal coordination issues, with over a dozen “friendly fights” between RJD and Congress rebels in key seats.

Agendas That Matter: Jobs, Migration, Corruption

Across rural and semi-urban Bihar, the buzzwords remain unchanged — jobs, migration, corruption, and education.

Every household has someone working outside the state, and the promise of employment remains both the emotional and political lifeline.

The NDA’s counter-offer — 1 crore jobs and 1 crore women lakhpatis — is being pitched as a credible, scaled-up alternative to Tejashwi’s ambitious claims.

Adding intrigue is Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party, which could play spoiler in a few seats. His focus on “good governance and local leadership” appeals to young voters disillusioned with both major blocs.

Phase 1: The Stakes and the Strategy

Phase 1 will test both message and machinery. The Mahagathbandhan enters with a historical advantage but faces resource and coordination constraints. The NDA, buoyed by Modi’s personal popularity and a well-oiled campaign structure, looks confident of narrowing or even overturning the 2020 deficit.

Observers say the “Jan” (people) may still empathise with the Opposition’s promises, but the “Tantra” (resources) — the campaign muscle, communication control, and organisational might — lies firmly with the NDA.

As the sun rises over South and Central Bihar on polling day, every booth will echo a deeper battle — not just for power, but for the state’s path forward.

The outcome of Phase 1 could well script the tone for the rest of Bihar’s 2025 electoral saga.