Patna: As Bihar awaits the Assembly election results, attention is focused on five pivotal regions, Tirhut, Mithilanchal and Kosi, Saran, Seemanchal, and Shahabad, where sharp social and political divides may determine the outcome between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan (the grand alliance).

In Seemanchal, a Muslim-majority belt encompassing Purnia, Katihar, Araria, and Kishanganj, the Mahagathbandhan is banking on strong support from its core base. However, the return of AIMIM, which won five seats here in 2020, risks splitting the Muslim vote. The presence of Jan Suraaj’s Sarfaraz Alam could further complicate contests like Jokihat, where his brother, RJD’s Shahnawaz Alam, is the sitting MLA.

Shahabad, covering 22 seats across Bhojpur, Rohtas, Kaimur, and Buxar, was central to the Mahagathbandhan’s 2020 surge, when it captured 20 seats thanks in part to LJP (RV) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha cutting into the NDA’s share. Both parties are now allied with the NDA, potentially reversing that trend. The BSP is also contesting in several constituencies, adding another layer of competition.

In Tirhut, Bihar’s largest region with 49 seats, the NDA relies on its traditional stronghold in East and West Champaran, reinforced by Nitish Kumar’s initiatives against cross-border crime. Muzaffarpur and Sitamarhi are expected to remain closely fought, reflecting the region’s diverse caste mix, including upper castes, OBCs, and EBCs such as Dhanuks and Mallahs.

Mithilanchal and Kosi, encompassing 40 seats, could tilt in favour of the Mahagathbandhan due to a solid Yadav-Muslim base and support from Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party, which may sway Nishad voters. However, polarisation in Brahmin-Muslim mixed areas like Darbhanga and Madhubani could benefit the BJP.

Finally, Saran, with 24 seats, remains a fiercely contested battleground. Notable showdowns include Siwan, where BJP’s Mangal Pandey faces RJD veteran Awadh Bihari Choudhary, and Chhapra, where Bhojpuri star Khesari Lal Yadav is contesting for the RJD against BJP’s Chhoti Kumari, according to Business Today. The analysts suggest that the results in these five regions will be crucial in deciding the balance of power in Bihar, reflecting the interplay of caste dynamics, party alliances, and regional loyalties.