India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil has become the subject of a heated political narrative in recent days, with sections of the Opposition suggesting that New Delhi now requires “permission” from Washington to buy oil from Moscow. However, the data on India’s imports and the broader context of global energy markets suggest a far more complex — and pragmatic — reality.

Russian oil remains central to India’s energy mix

Russia remained India’s largest crude oil supplier in February 2026. Indian refiners imported roughly 1.0 to 1.7 million barrels of Russian crude per day, accounting for about 25–30 per cent of India’s total oil imports.

In monthly terms, this translates to approximately 28–48 million barrels of Russian oil entering the Indian refining system. Put simply, India has been purchasing roughly 10 lakh barrels of Russian crude every day.

These volumes alone challenge the claim that India’s energy policy is dictated externally. If New Delhi truly required Washington’s approval to import Russian crude, such large-scale purchases would not be occurring.

Instead, the government has consistently framed its approach around a single guiding principle: energy security for a nation of more than 1.4 billion people.

A temporary US waiver amid global market turmoil

The debate gained momentum after the United States Treasury Department announced a 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to continue purchasing Russian oil.

The licence, issued by the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, authorises the delivery and sale of Russian-origin crude and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of 5 March 2026 and destined for India. The transactions are permitted until 3 April 2026.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the move as a temporary step designed to stabilise global energy markets during an escalating geopolitical crisis.

In a post on X, Bessent said the waiver would allow oil already stranded at sea to continue flowing into global markets while tensions in the Middle East disrupt supplies.

“India is an essential partner of the United States,” he wrote, adding that Washington expects New Delhi to increase imports of American crude in the longer term.

The waiver applies specifically to oil shipments already in transit and is structured as a short-term measure to prevent supply disruptions rather than to provide a financial boost to Russia.

Sanctions backdrop and shifting supply dynamics

The temporary exemption comes against the backdrop of sanctions imposed last year by US President Donald Trump, targeting major Russian energy firms including Lukoil and Rosneft.

Following those sanctions, India’s Russian oil imports fell to about 1.1 million barrels per day in January 2026, the lowest level since late 2022. Russia’s share of India’s oil imports declined to 21.2 per cent during that period.

However, the share rebounded to roughly 30 per cent in February, as refiners adjusted sourcing strategies and sought relief from potential tariff pressures.

Middle East conflict tightening global supply

The decision to temporarily ease restrictions also reflects the broader crisis unfolding across global energy markets.

Oil production across the Gulf region has been disrupted by escalating military tensions. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow maritime chokepoint that carries roughly 20 per cent of global oil supplies — has significantly strained supply chains.

Several major facilities have also been hit in recent strikes, including Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery and Iraq’s Rumaila oil field, two of the world’s most critical oil supply hubs.

The conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran has further intensified the situation, sending global crude prices sharply higher.

Benchmark Brent Crude rose to $83.07 per barrel on Friday morning as markets reacted to supply disruptions and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

India’s energy calculus

For India, which imports more than 85 per cent of its crude oil requirement, maintaining diversified and affordable supply channels is critical.

Every discounted barrel of crude affects domestic costs — from transport and manufacturing to electricity generation and household expenses. This reality shaped New Delhi’s strategy following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when Indian refiners increased purchases of discounted Russian oil to shield the economy from global price volatility.

The approach has continued even as India maintains active diplomatic engagement with multiple energy partners, including the United States, Russia and Gulf producers.

No immediate impact on Indian fuel prices

Despite the recent surge in global oil prices, government sources have indicated that petrol and diesel prices in India are unlikely to be raised for now.

Officials say the country’s diversified sourcing strategy and inventory buffers are helping absorb the shock from volatile global markets.

Strategic autonomy in energy policy

India’s oil procurement strategy has long been framed as an exercise in strategic autonomy — balancing relationships with competing global powers while prioritising domestic economic stability.

The current geopolitical crisis, marked by disruptions in West Asian energy production and maritime trade routes, has only reinforced the importance of maintaining multiple supply options.

For policymakers in New Delhi, the objective remains straightforward: secure reliable energy supplies at competitive prices while navigating an increasingly fragmented global order.