Bangladesh is staring at a quiet but potentially explosive public health emergency, one that goes far beyond political unrest and street violence. Even as the country grapples with instability following the death of student leader Sharif Osman Hadi, a far less visible crisis is building within its healthcare system: the possible exhaustion of condom supplies nationwide within weeks.

According to a report by The Daily Star, Bangladesh’s Directorate General of Family Planning (DGFP) is expected to completely run out of condoms in just 38 days, raising alarms about a looming breakdown in the country’s most widely used contraceptive programme.

Officials warn that the shortage could leave millions without access to free contraception for at least a month early next year. 

A system under strain

Contraceptive supplies in Bangladesh have been steadily declining for years, but funding constraints and acute staff shortages have now pushed the system to the brink.

The DGFP, which distributes five types of contraceptives free of cost, condoms, oral pills, intrauterine devices (IUDs), injectables, and implants, is struggling to maintain basic stock levels across the country.

Data from the National Contraceptive Summary Report paints a grim picture. Over the past six years, condom supplies have dropped by 57 per cent. The decline is even steeper for other methods: oral pills are down 63 per cent, IUDs 64 per cent, injectables 41 per cent, and implants 37 per cent.

As of December 11, 2025, DGFP stock levels stood at just 39 days for condoms, 33 days for implants, and 45 days for IUDs. While oral pills and injectables currently have several months’ worth of supply, officials caution that these buffers are shrinking rapidly.

Legal hurdles and empty shelves

Abdur Razzaque, Director of DGFP’s Logistics and Supply Unit, acknowledged the crisis, saying restocking is possible only if an ongoing legal dispute related to procurement is resolved. However, he admitted that condoms are almost certain to run out before that happens.

Compounding the problem is a severe shortage of field-level family planning workers — the backbone of Bangladesh’s contraceptive delivery system. DGFP Director General Ashrafi Ahmad revealed that recruitment for key posts has been stalled due to legal complications, leaving large areas underserved.

“These workers don’t just distribute contraceptives,” officials note. “They counsel couples, guide young women, and play a critical role in sustaining family planning awareness.”

A fertility reversal after 50 years

The timing could not be worse. Bangladesh has recorded an increase in its total fertility rate (TFR) for the first time in five decades. According to the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2025, the TFR has risen to 2.4, up from 2.3 last year.

Experts warn that the shortage of contraceptives could accelerate this trend. A recent national survey found declining contraceptive use and reduced access to modern methods — directly linking supply disruptions to rising birth rates.

Aminul Islam, Professor of Population Sciences at Dhaka University, told The Daily Star that social attitudes are also shifting. “Many couples are becoming less inclined towards strict family planning and are opting for more than two children,” he said.

A crisis hiding in plain sight

While condom shortages may not dominate headlines like political clashes or street violence, public health experts warn the consequences could be long-lasting — from unplanned pregnancies and maternal health risks to economic strain and demographic imbalance.

As Bangladesh edges closer to empty warehouses and rising birth rates, one question looms large: Can the country avert a full-scale family planning collapse before the clock runs out?