The Indian stock market benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open sharply lower on Wednesday after global markets witnessed heavy selling amid escalating tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

Trading remained shut on Tuesday, March 3, on account of Holi 2026. However, Monday’s session had already signalled heightened volatility, with benchmark indices tumbling over 1% as crude oil prices surged and global risk sentiment deteriorated.

The Sensex had fallen 1,048.34 points (1.29%) to close at 80,238.85, while the Nifty 50 dropped 312.95 points (1.24%) to settle at 24,865.70.

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Here are 10 key global and domestic cues that could shape today’s market action:

1. Gift Nifty Signals Sharp Gap-Down

Gift Nifty was trading around the 24,432 level, nearly 550 points below the previous close of Nifty futures, indicating a steep gap-down start for Indian equities.

2. Wall Street Extends Losses

US markets closed sharply lower overnight amid fears that the Middle East conflict could prolong inflationary pressures.

Dow Jones fell 403.51 points (0.83%) to 48,501.27

S&P 500 dropped 64.99 points (0.94%) to 6,816.63

Nasdaq Composite declined 232.17 points (1.02%) to 22,516.69

The S&P 500 closed below its 100-day moving average for the first time since November 20, signalling technical weakness.

3. Asian Markets Under Pressure

Asian equities mirrored Wall Street’s weakness amid fears of an energy shock.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.5%

Topix dropped 1.61%

South Korea’s Kospi crashed 7.24%

Kosdaq plunged 5.56%

Hang Seng futures indicated a lower open

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4. Escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict

Geopolitical uncertainty intensified as the US military reportedly struck over 2000 targets in Iran, including naval vessels, missile sites and command centres. Iran responded with fresh missile launches across the Gulf region.

The ongoing conflict has heightened concerns over global energy supply and inflation risks.

5. Crude Oil Prices Surge

Brent crude rose 1.30% to $82.46 per barrel, while US WTI crude gained 1.10% to $75.37. Rising oil prices remain a key risk for India, a major oil importer.

6. Gold Rebounds on Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices rose 1% to $5,138.46 per ounce after recent declines. US gold futures gained 0.5% to $5,147.10. Silver also rebounded 1.4% to $83.27.

7. Dollar at Three-Month High

The US dollar index stood at 99.103, its strongest since late November. The greenback’s strength may put pressure on emerging market currencies, including the rupee.

8. US Treasury Yields Rise

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.056%, after touching a two-and-a-half-week high of 4.117%. Rising bond yields could dampen equity sentiment globally.

9. Japanese Bond Yields Ease

Shorter-dated Japanese government bond yields declined as investors pared expectations of an early rate hike by the Bank of Japan amid geopolitical risks.

10. India’s industrial output slows

India’s industrial production growth slowed to a three-month low of 4.8% in January, compared to 5.2% growth in January 2025, adding to concerns about domestic momentum.