Thiruvananthapuram: As Kerala approaches the 2026 Assembly elections, a Mathrubhumi-CORE Mood of the State survey reveals a photo-finish between the state’s leading political fronts. Surveying over 60,000 voters and analysing 28,432 valid responses, results say the “MLA Factor” – the personal popularity of local legislators – could prove decisive in an extremely close contest.

MLA factor keeps incumbents in contention despite desire for change

The survey, conducted from 16 to 23 February 2026 across all 140 constituencies, used scientific sampling targeting urban junctions, rural households, and government offices, with women accounting for 47.05% of respondents.

Despite a widespread appetite for change after ten years of Left Democratic Front (LDF) governance, voters remain remarkably loyal to their local MLAs. “Even those who are critical of the state government’s overall performance often hold their sitting MLAs in high regard,” the survey notes.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan (Dharmadam) topped the MLA popularity chart with 86.45 points on a 10-point scale, followed by M.S. Arunkumar (Mavelikkara) at 82.69 and C.K. Hareendran (Parassala) at 81.82. Opposition figures Chandy Oommen (Puthuppally) and Ramesh Chennithala (Haripad) also feature among the top six, indicating that personal credibility spans party lines.

Interestingly, 80.52% of respondents rated the first LDF ministry (2016–2021) as superior to the current term, reflecting concerns over continuity in governance.

Leadership duel and razor-thin arithmetic of power

The contest for Chief Minister remains tightly poised. Pinarayi Vijayan leads 27.85% to 27.77% for Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan, with clear demographic patterns: Vijayan performs better among Hindu voters (32.48%), while Satheesan enjoys strong support among Christians (34.66%) and Muslims (38.76%). Satheesan is also popular among younger voters and in Central Kerala; Vijayan retains the northern stronghold. Other contenders include K.K. Shailaja (12.11%) and Ramesh Chennithala (9.13%).

Within the ruling cabinet, a new hierarchy of popularity has emerged. Transport Minister K.B. Ganesh Kumar has stunned observers by becoming the highest-rated minister with 24.17% approval, followed by Education Minister V. Sivankutty at 19.38%.

Crucial numbers

The survey predicts the LDF may secure 66–77 seats, the UDF 62–73, and BJP-led NDA 0–2, with total vote shares of 43.55% for LDF, 42.28% for UDF, and 14.17% for NDA. Regionally, the LDF remains dominant in the North (28-33 seats) and has a slight edge in the South (20-24 seats). Conversely, the UDF is projected to sweep Central Kerala, potentially taking 21-23 seats.

Development (36.13%) has overtaken traditional identity politics as the primary concern for voters. In Northern Kerala, this figure jumps even higher to 40.28%. However, the "desire for change" is a standalone factor for 16.78% of the electorate, who want a new government regardless of specific performance metrics.

Shadows of past controversies continue to haunt the ruling front. Roughly 52.09% of voters believe that scandals surrounding Sabarimala and gold smuggling will negatively impact the LDF's prospects. Among those who oppose a third term for the LDF, 51.27% cite general dissatisfaction with the administration, while 9.93% specifically point to the Sabarimala issue.

On the flip side, the LDF’s resilience is anchored in its welfare net. Among those who support a third term, 8.31% credit social security pensions as their main reason for staying loyal.

With 12 constituencies identified as tight contests, the election outcome is expected to hinge on the final days of campaigning, where micro-level MLA popularity may tip the balance.