As Kerala's political landscape intensifies ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, a comprehensive Mathrubhumi-CORE 'Mood of the State' survey has revealed a striking consensus among the electorate: a profound nostalgia for the first Pinarayi Vijayan-led ministry. The data, compiled from over 28,432 samples, indicates that while the LDF remains a formidable contender, it is struggling to escape the shadow of its own initial success.

When asked to directly compare the two Pinarayi Vijayan cabinets, an overwhelming 80.52% of respondents rated the first government (2016–2021) as the better administration, leaving just 19.48% in favor of the current second term.

This sentiment is remarkably consistent across all demographics and regions:

Central Kerala expressed the strongest preference for the first term at 85.56%.

Northern and Southern Kerala followed closely with 78.61% and 78.82% respectively.

The preference was nearly identical across genders, with 80.16% of women and 80.82% of men favouring the first cabinet.

Loss of Momentum in the Second Term

The survey analysis suggests that the ministers of the first Pinarayi Vijayan cabinet were perceived as high-performing and effective, a standard that the current second cabinet has reportedly failed to maintain.

While the first term was characterized by a sense of momentum, the second term is viewed by a majority of the public as having lost that edge.

Despite this, the current state government still holds a respectable overall performance score of 68.74%, and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan maintains an individual rating of 62.91%.

However, the survey notes that the second term is heavily burdened by "general opposition to the administration" (cited by 51.27% of those predicting an LDF loss) and a significant desire for change (16.78% of all voters) after ten years of the same alliance.

Development vs Controversy

The nostalgia for the first term is largely anchored in its record of development and good governance, which remain the top factors that could potentially lead to a third term for the LDF (cited by 35.28% and 38.08% of optimistic respondents, respectively).

Conversely, the second term has been marred by a lingering anti-incumbency sentiment and the continued fallout from controversies like Sabarimala and the gold smuggling case, which 52.09% of voters believe will negatively impact the LDF in the coming election.

The Minority Shift

The survey highlights that support for the current administration is noticeably lower among minority communities. In contrast, the first term was often credited with a more cohesive leadership that appealed across a broader spectrum of the electorate.

Ultimately, the survey suggests that if the LDF is to secure a historic third term, it must find a way to replicate the perceived efficiency and minister-level performance that defined its first five years in power.