The Congress’ long wait to announce Kerala’s next chief minister is now entering its final stretch, but the delay itself has become the story.

What should have been a straightforward post-election transition has instead exposed the complex power balance inside one of the party’s strongest remaining state units.

Senior leaders insist a decision is imminent. Yet behind closed doors, the party is wrestling with a much bigger question than simply choosing who occupies the top office in Thiruvananthapuram.

Unlike many other states, Kerala politics has traditionally revolved around clearly identifiable power centres. In the CPM, leaders like EK Nayanar, VS Achuthanandan and Pinarayi Vijayan dominated different eras.

In the Congress too, towering figures such as K Karunakaran, AK Antony, and Oommen Chandy ensured there was little confusion about who led the party politically. That clarity disappeared after Oommen Chandy’s death.

The Congress is now not just selecting a chief minister for the next five years. It is effectively deciding who could become the party’s dominant face in Kerala for the next decade.

That is why the contest between KC Venugopal, VD Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala has become so sensitive.

Venugopal enjoys strong backing from the Congress high command and is considered close to both Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge. 

As the party’s organisation general secretary, he holds one of the most powerful posts in the Congress nationally. Supporters also point out that a large section of MLAs is believed to be backing him.

However, his critics argue that he has spent too many years in Delhi and no longer represents grassroots Kerala politics in the same way as Satheesan or Chennithala.

His elevation would also trigger two politically risky bypolls, one to vacate his Lok Sabha seat and another to bring him into the Assembly.

Satheesan, meanwhile, is seen by many workers as the natural claimant because he led the Opposition against the Left government.

However, sections of the central leadership reportedly believe his camp became too aggressive after the election results and projected him excessively during the campaign.

Chennithala brings seniority and administrative experience, but the shadow of the Congress’s 2021 defeat still hangs over him. Many in the party believe that the election was his best opportunity to become chief minister.

The deeper concern for Congress is what happens after the decision. A wrong move could reopen factional rivalries that once paralysed the party in Kerala.

And unlike earlier decades, the Congress no longer dominates the Centre needed to easily manage internal rebellions.