Kerala is poised for an exceptionally close assembly elections, with the Mathrubhumi-CORE Mood of the State Survey revealing a clutch of constituencies separated by the slimmest of margins. According to the poll, the final outcome may well hinge on 12 high-stakes seats where the lead is under 3%.

Ground zero: 12 seats on a knife-edge

The survey identifies 12 “Tight Fight” constituencies too close to call. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) currently leads in 10, while the United Democratic Front (UDF) holds a narrow advantage in two. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leading National Democratic Alliance(NDA) has emerged as a significant challenger in two areas.

Key margins include:

  1. Thrippunithura – LDF leads UDF by 1.05%
  2. Nemom – LDF ahead of BJP by 1.21%
  3. Poonjar – LDF 1.38% ahead of UDF
  4. Manjeshwaram – UDF leads BJP by 1.5%
  5. Neyyattinkara – LDF leads UDF by 1.93%
  6. Kattakkada – LDF ahead by 1.97%
  7. Idukki – LDF 2.43% ahead of UDF
  8. Thrithala – LDF leads UDF by 2.5%
  9. Tanur – LDF ahead by 2.5%
  10. Kuttiadi – LDF leads UDF by 2.78%
  11. Aranmula – LDF 2.79% ahead of UDF
  12. Kunnamangalam – UDF leads LDF by 2.94%

Regional trends and seat predictions

North Kerala is the most volatile region, with six of these tight seats, followed by South Kerala with four and Central Kerala with two. The survey forecasts a near-even finish for the treasury benches.

The LDF is projected to secure 66–77 seats, the UDF 62–73, while the NDA may win 0–2 seats. With neither front showing a clear wave, these 12 constituencies could ultimately determine who governs the state.

The survey was conducted from 16 to 23 February 2026, covering 28,432 voters across all 140 constituencies. Data was collected from 1,600 centres, carefully balancing urban and rural voices to reflect the electorate’s true mood.