The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a major update on the 2026 southwest monsoon, forecasting below-normal rainfall across India during the June-September season. According to the latest long-range forecast, the country is expected to receive around 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error margin of plus or minus 4 per cent. The weather agency has assigned an 84 per cent probability to the below-normal rainfall scenario, raising concerns over agriculture, water availability and economic activity.

The forecast indicates that 2026 could be among the weaker monsoon years in recent times, with June itself likely to witness below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country. The outlook is being influenced by developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are known to weaken monsoon activity over India.

Apart from reduced rainfall, the IMD has warned of above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across large parts of the country during June. Several states are likely to experience more heatwave days than usual, increasing pressure on water resources and agriculture.

The monsoon core zone, which covers key rain-fed agricultural regions responsible for a significant share of India's food production, is also expected to receive below-normal rainfall. This could impact crop output, groundwater levels, hydroelectric power generation and drinking water supplies if the deficit persists through the season.

Forecast for South India:

South Peninsular India is among the regions expected to face deficient rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon. Most areas in the region are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, although some eastern parts of South India may witness normal to above-normal rainfall in isolated pockets.

The combination of lower rainfall and above-normal temperatures could increase stress on reservoirs, agriculture and water management systems across several southern states. Authorities have been advised to strengthen water conservation efforts and prepare contingency plans for potential dry conditions.

Forecast for North India?

Northwest India is also projected to experience below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season. However, some isolated areas in the region could receive normal to above-normal rainfall despite the broader deficit forecast.

The IMD has also predicted an increased number of heatwave days in several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh during June. In contrast, Rajasthan and Jharkhand is expected to record fewer heatwave days than normal.

Central India is similarly likely to witness deficient rainfall, while Northeast India remains the only broad region where rainfall is expected to stay within the normal range. Some scattered areas in East India may also receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

The Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral and is expected to stay neutral during the monsoon season, offering limited support to rainfall activity. The IMD is expected to release a more detailed forecast for July towards the end of June.

Meanwhile, state governments and farmers have been advised to prepare for a potentially weak monsoon through efficient water management, drought-resistant crop varieties and enhanced water conservation measures.

With IANS inputs