Bihar, long seen as India’s political bellwether — a state whose election results often indicate the mood of the entire country — is once again setting the tone for India’s electoral future. With early trends signalling a massive mandate for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coalition appears poised to strengthen its hold ahead of key state polls in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Assam, and the 2029 general elections.

Early trends hint at a landslide

Initial results from the Bihar Assembly elections suggest a sweeping victory for the NDA, delivering a setback to the Mahagathbandhan alliance. Both the RJD and Congress have reportedly lost ground, while new entrants such as the Jan Suraaj Party appear to have made little impact.

Exit polls had predicted a strong NDA return:

  • Peoples Pulse survey: NDA 133–159 seats, Mahagathbandhan 75–101, Jan Suraaj 0–5
  • JVC survey: NDA 135–150, MGB 88–103
  • DVC Research: NDA 137–152, MGB 83–98
  • P-Marq: NDA 142–162, Mahagathbandhan 80–98

Janata Dal (United) described the trend as historic: “Bihar has given the NDA a historic mandate. Now many people will blame the EVMs,” it posted on X.

Modi’s predictions and social media buzz

The victory appears to echo PM Modi’s campaign forecasts. Addressing a rally in Aurangabad, he said:

“This election will see the biggest victory of NDA. I am telling you to prepare for the Vijay Utsav after November 14.”

The video of his statement has gone viral, with many labelling him the ‘perfect pollster’.

Earlier in Muzaffarpur, ahead of the first election phase, Modi warned of the Mahagathbandhan’s impending defeat:

“Today, every survey is clearly revealing that the RJD and Congress are heading towards their biggest defeat ever in this election. All surveys are saying that the NDA is going to get the biggest victory. This new history is being created by the youth, women, farmers and fishermen of Bihar and this has left the RJD and Congress shuddering with fear.”

Why Bihar matters nationally

Bihar sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha, making it a crucial pillar for any national coalition. Its diverse caste and community landscape renders its outcome a key indicator of political trends across India. “Bihar’s election is not just about alliances but arithmetic,” said New Delhi-based analyst Sidharth Mishra. “If the NDA led by Modi falters, it could unsettle his coalition at the centre.”

Bihar’s result is significant for Modi as he seeks to build momentum ahead of national elections in 2029 and key state polls over the next two years. After last year’s federal vote, where Modi’s party failed to win a majority and relied on allies Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) to form the government, the state’s verdict strengthens his coalition and consolidates political support.

High-stakes campaigning pays off

In Bihar, all parties deployed their star campaigners to mobilise support. PM Modi held multiple rallies, promising to accelerate development projects while recalling the ‘jungle raj’ of the RJD era. He warned voters against the return of those identified with ‘katta’, keeping the campaign focused on both governance and political history.

The early trends and exit polls indicate that the NDA’s strategy resonated with voters across youth, women, farmers, and fishermen, delivering a decisive edge over the Mahagathbandhan and signalling a potential blueprint for national success in the coming years.