Patna: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to retain power in Bihar, according to multiple exit polls released on Tuesday evening. The projections suggest that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s coalition has retained its hold over the state with a comfortable, possibly landslide majority.

Across major pollsters, the NDA’s seat projections range between 133 and 167, well past the halfway mark of 122 seats needed to form the government in the 243-member Assembly.

According to the Matrize–IANS exit poll, the NDA is expected to bag between 147 and 167 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is projected to secure 70 to 90 seats, and Others 2 to 6.

The Times Now–ETG JVC exit poll paints a similar picture, giving the NDA 135–150 seats, the MGB 88–103, and Others 3–7.

The People’s Insight survey estimates the NDA tally between 133–148, the MGB 87–102, and Jan Suraaj 0–2, while Others may pick up 3–6 seats.

Meanwhile, Peoples Pulse projects an even stronger majority, giving the NDA 133–159 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 75–101, Jan Suraaj 0–5, and Others 2–8.

Analysts say the exit poll trends indicate that Nitish Kumar’s alliance with the BJP continues to command voter confidence despite shifting political equations and regional competition. The Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, appears to have fallen short of expectations.

Were exit polls right in 2015 and 2020? A look back at Bihar’s polling predictions

As Bihar awaits the 2025 results, the record of past exit polls shows that predictions have often failed to capture the state’s complex voting patterns.

In 2020, most exit polls predicted a close fight, with an average of 11 surveys giving the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan a slight edge at 125 seats—just over the majority mark in the 243-member Assembly. The NDA, led by Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP, was projected to win around 108 seats. However, when votes were counted, the NDA clinched victory with 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan finished with 110.

Pollsters such as Patriotic Voter, P-Marq and ABP-CVoter came closest to the actual outcome, correctly projecting a narrow NDA win. On the other hand, News18–Today’s Chanakya was far off the mark, predicting just 55 seats for the NDA and a landslide 180 for the Opposition. Overall, the 2020 exit polls underestimated the NDA by 17 seats and overestimated the Mahagathbandhan by 15.

Rewinding further to 2015, exit polls once again misread Bihar’s political pulse. That year, the RJD-JD(U)-Congress Mahagathbandhan was projected to win narrowly with around 122 seats, while the BJP-led NDA was expected to get about 114. But the actual results told a different story — the Grand Alliance won a resounding 178 seats, while the NDA managed just 58.

Only a few agencies, including CNN-IBN–Axis My India, accurately sensed the Mahagathbandhan’s surge, while several others either predicted a neck-and-neck contest or even an NDA win.