It has been an arduous general election -spanning seven phases over seven weeks under a relentless sun. The BJP was more confident than they were during the 2014 and 2019 elections as they aimed to secure over 400 of the total 543 seats. Their 'Ab Ki Baar Chaar Sau Paar' slogan ('this time, we will cross 400') seemed entirely plausible and was bolstered by favorable exit polls. The BJP had set for themselves a target of 370 seats, a clear reference to the abrogation of Article 370.
When polling began, the BJP was shocked to see a significant drop in voting percentages. The first phase saw a 3.5% dip, and the second phase had a 3% decline. This prompted the party to intensify its campaign, relying heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The 73-year-old Modi participated in 206 outreach events, including rallies and roadshows, and gave nearly 80 interviews. In contrast, Rahul Gandhi managed 107 poll events. Modi's efforts bore fruit as voting percentages gradually improved, with the figures in the final two phases surpassing that of 2019.
Had the BJP's extensive campaign machinery not ramped up, the results could have been much worse. The party seemed well aware of potential setbacks by April, leading to a shift in Modi's rhetoric by May. The aggressive language, especially with regard to minorities, the open communal fear-mongering about what could happen if INDIA roars back to power at the Centre, the Congress manifesto guarantees, Rahul Gandhi's speeches on caste census, even the fake AI video of Amit Shah vowing to end reservations once they returned to power- all these might have played a part in bringing down the lofty goal of 400 seats the BJP had planned to achieve.
The BJP's biggest misstep in the 2024 general election may have been its failure to detect the underlying anger and resentment of the public, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Farmers, jobless youth (particularly those discontented with the Agniveer scheme), alleged irregularities in the electoral bond scheme, fears of alleged BJP plans to tamper with the Constitution of India if they retained power and the feeling of insecurity among minorities, particularly Muslims (data shows that about 75 percent of Muslims voted for non-BJP parties), all contributed to the disgruntlement. Additionally, the alleged persecution of opposition parties (with two chief ministers currently imprisoned) buttressed the criticism of the authoritarian overtones of the NDA government. While the mainstream media, dubbed by the Opposition as Godi (lapdog) media, didn't pay much attention to what was happening on the ground, social media influencers worked overtime and succeeded in taking the INDIA narrative to the smartphone-savvy masses.
In Uttar Pradesh, the voter turnout dropped by approximately 2.77%, a significant shift. The decline in BSP's influence benefited Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, which saw a resurgence, while Mayawati's party failed to secure any seats. Akhilesh managed to surpass UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath after four consecutive defeats since 2014. In Rajasthan, Sachin Pilot led the Congress to claim 10 seats from the BJP. In Maharashtra, the electorate's frustration with the Fadnavis-led BJP's political manoeuvers was evident, resulting in a substantial setback for the NDA.
The BJP top brass seemed oblivious to what was happening in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra. Perhaps ten years in power made them overconfident and less sensitive to public sentiment; they also appeared to have lost their connection with the common people. The return to coalition politics could revive the good old virtues of consultation and consensus at the Centre, ultimately benefiting democracy. 'Do Sau Paar' (plus two hundred) seems to always be better than 'Chaar Sau Paar' (plus four hundred)!
Published: 06 Jun 2024, 05:28 pm IST
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