Kochi: Even though oil sardine stocks are healthy this year, scientists at the ICAR-Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) have warned that an emerging El Niño event could significantly reduce sardine availability in 2027 due to rising sea temperatures and marine heat waves.

Speaking at the National Fish Farmers Day celebrations in Kochi on Friday, CMFRI Director Dr Grinson George said the warming linked to El Niño is expected to strengthen between October and December this year, with its effects likely to reach the northern Indian Ocean by April-May 2027.

He said oil sardines, one of India's most commercially important fish species, are highly vulnerable to ocean warming and prolonged marine heat waves. While sardine stocks remain abundant this year, the projected rise in sea temperatures could reduce fish production next year, affecting both the fishing industry and the livelihoods of coastal communities.

The institute also warned that the impact may not be limited to sardines. Continued warming of ocean waters could damage coral reef ecosystems, trigger coral bleaching and reduce populations of reef fish such as red snapper.

To help fishers and aquaculture farmers prepare, CMFRI announced that it will begin issuing El Niño advisories later this year.

The institute also advised fish farmers to be ready for sudden changes in salinity caused by heavy rainfall after prolonged periods of high temperatures, which could disrupt coastal aquaculture and lead to production losses.

CMFRI stressed that regular monitoring of ocean conditions and climate-adaptive management practices will be key to protecting marine resources and sustaining the livelihoods of fishing communities in the years ahead.