AI could send GDP soaring by 2030- but knowledge workers face job losses: Anthropic

New Delhi: Artificial intelligence could significantly accelerate economic growth by 2030, but faster AI adoption may also put pressure on employment and wages for knowledge workers, particularly if AI becomes capable of autonomously performing a large share of knowledge-intensive tasks, according to Anthropic's latest economic outlook.

Anthropic's Economics team, in its Scenarios for our Economic Future report, has modelled three possible paths for the US economy by 2030- modest, substantial and extreme- depending on the pace of AI capability development, adoption and productivity gains.

AI could boost economic growth across scenarios

The report said AI is expected to increase economic output under all three scenarios, although the scale of the gains could vary significantly.

Under the modest scenario, AI's economic impact would be comparable to that of the internet, resulting in gradual gains within the historical range of technological advances.

The substantial scenario envisages AI performing about half of all knowledge work by 2030, with the economy growing at roughly twice its normal rate.

Under this scenario, US GDP in 2030 is projected to reach $36.3 trillion, or 8.3 per cent higher than it would be without AI.

In the extreme scenario, GDP could reach $44.4 trillion, which would be 32.4 per cent above the baseline.

AI could put knowledge workers under pressure

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Anthropic cautioned that stronger economic growth would not necessarily translate into higher wages for all workers.

In the substantial scenario, wages for knowledge workers could remain broadly flat, while workers in other occupations could see stronger wage growth.

The extreme scenario presents a much sharper transformation, with AI becoming more productive than humans across most knowledge-work tasks and performing nearly all such work autonomously.

Anthropic estimates that annual GDP growth could reach 15 per cent in this scenario, allowing the economy to double in size every 4.5 years.

At the same time, rapid automation of knowledge work could lead to significantly higher unemployment and lower wages for affected workers.

“In the extreme scenario, the gains from a rapidly expanding economy are unevenly distributed,” the report said.

Displaced workers may struggle to find new jobs

Anthropic noted that workers displaced from knowledge-intensive occupations could face difficulties transitioning to other professions.

Changing occupations often requires acquiring new skills and finding suitable employment, which could make the transition challenging for workers whose jobs are substantially automated.

The report therefore suggests that the economic disruption caused by AI could extend beyond direct job losses, with some workers facing prolonged difficulties in moving into new occupations.
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AI could shift gains from labour to capital

The report also highlighted a potential change in how economic gains are distributed between workers and capital as AI adoption increases.

Currently, about 60 per cent of economic output goes to workers and 40 per cent to capital, according to Anthropic. However, the capital share could rise substantially in more transformative AI scenarios.

In the extreme scenario, Anthropic estimates that labour could receive 45.2 per cent of GDP, while capital's share could rise to 54.8 per cent.

This would represent a significant shift in the distribution of economic output as AI becomes increasingly capable of performing tasks traditionally carried out by human workers.

AI's economic future remains uncertain

Anthropic stressed that its scenarios are not predetermined outcomes. The eventual impact of AI will depend on how its capabilities develop, how quickly companies and workers adopt the technology and how the resulting financial benefits are distributed.

“The future is not predetermined,” Anthropic said

The report said the central challenge in its most transformative scenario may not be generating economic growth, but ensuring that the gains from AI are broadly shared while limiting the costs of job displacement and unequal distribution.

The scenarios highlight the potential trade-off facing economies as AI advances: the technology could substantially increase economic output while simultaneously putting jobs and wages in some knowledge-intensive occupations under pressure.
(With ANI inputs)