Guayaquil: Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa shocked voters when he outperformed several seasoned candidates in the 2023 snap election, despite having little political experience and no established machinery to back him. The young conservative millionaire, heir to a banana trade empire, then stunned the nation further when he secured a 16-month presidency after defeating leftist lawyer Luisa González in a runoff election. Now, as Ecuador heads to the polls again this Sunday, Noboa is seeking a full four-year term to continue his crimefighting strategies that have divided public opinion and tested the limits of governance.

From business to politics

Noboa, 37, launched his political career in 2021 when he won a seat in Ecuador’s National Assembly and chaired its Economic Development Commission. Prior to that, he had founded an event-organising company at the age of 18 before joining his father’s Noboa Corp., where he held management positions in shipping, logistics, and commercial sectors. Despite his political inexperience, he leveraged his business background and pragmatic approach to governance to gain public trust.

A battle for Ecuador’s future

In Sunday’s election, Noboa faces 15 challengers, including his 2023 rival, Luisa González, the protégé of former President Rafael Correa. Correa governed Ecuador from 2007 to 2017 with free-spending, socially conservative policies that still polarise voters. Noboa and González are the clear frontrunners in a race where victory requires a candidate to secure 50 percent of the vote or at least 40 percent with a 10-percentage-point lead over the nearest competitor. If no candidate meets this threshold, a runoff election will be held on April 13.

Crime and security under Noboa’s leadership

Security has been at the centre of Noboa’s presidency. Ecuador’s homicide rate decreased from 8,237 (46.18 per 100,000 people) in 2023 to 6,964 (38.76 per 100,000 people) last year. Despite this improvement, the numbers remain far higher than pre-crisis levels, with only 1,188 homicides (6.85 per 100,000 people) recorded in 2019. January 2024 was Ecuador’s deadliest month on record, with 731 homicides, including 244 in the coastal city of Guayaquil.

“You can see that he is trying to take out criminals,” said Diego Morales, a security guard in Quito who plans to vote for Noboa, crediting his efforts to curb the country’s spike in violence.

Security consultant Hugo Acero also acknowledged Noboa’s impact, saying, “I think that the citizens for the most part recognise his effort to improve security.” He added that any leader who manages to improve public safety “has the votes guaranteed for reelection.”

Controversial tactics and global criticism

Noboa’s aggressive crimefighting strategies have drawn criticism both domestically and internationally. In January 2024, he declared Ecuador to be in a state of internal armed conflict, mobilising the military in specific regions, including prisons, to combat organised crime. His actions shocked world leaders when he authorised a police raid on Mexico’s embassy in Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, a convicted criminal and fugitive who had taken refuge there for months.

Additionally, while campaigning earlier this year, Noboa temporarily transferred presidential powers to an unelected official, Vice President Verónica Abad, as required by Ecuador’s Code of Democracy. However, tensions between the two have been apparent since before they assumed office. Noboa effectively sidelined Abad by appointing her as Ecuador’s ambassador to Israel. She has since described her posting as “forced exile.”

A leader who bends the rules?

Noboa’s approach to governance has led some analysts to question his use of legal frameworks to serve his objectives. “He has not hesitated to use the law and the Constitution to keep things working the way he wants,” said Maria Cristina Bayas, a professor at Quito’s University of the Americas. If re-elected, many believe he will continue pushing legal and institutional boundaries to maintain his grip on power.

AP