Saudi Arabia: A significant diplomatic meeting between senior US and Russian officials is scheduled for Tuesday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, focusing on the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will discuss potential peace efforts and the future of US-Russian relations. However, Europe and Ukraine have been notably excluded from these talks, raising concerns on the continent and in Kyiv.

The exclusion of Europe and Ukraine from these talks comes at a critical time, as European leaders are preparing to meet in Paris for an emergency summit to address the war. This summit is expected to focus on Europe’s role in the conflict and its relationship with Russia, while the ongoing US-Russia talks may sideline European influence in the peace process.

Kyiv's frustration and European concerns

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept any peace negotiations without its direct involvement. Zelenskyy has expressed concerns that any deals made without Ukraine’s participation would undermine its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This growing frustration in Kyiv is compounded by the fact that Europe, despite being a key ally in the conflict, is also left out of the US-Russia discussions.

UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan receiving Ukraine's Presiodent Volodymyr Zelensky at al-Shati Palace in Abu Dhabi

European leaders, particularly those from countries like Poland, have been vocal about their concerns that excluding Europe from the talks could undermine their influence in shaping the outcome of the peace process. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has already called for immediate steps to boost Europe’s defence capabilities in light of Russia’s growing military threat. Tusk’s comments reflect the rising fear that Europe could be sidelined as a major player in the negotiations.

The role of the Paris summit

The upcoming Paris summit of European leaders is set to address these concerns, with key discussions likely to focus on how Europe can support Ukraine and influence the peace process. However, with the US and Russia holding separate talks without European involvement, the summit could see increased tensions within the EU over its role in the ongoing conflict.

Leaders at the summit are expected to push for a more unified stance on how to respond to the US-Russia talks, as well as to discuss Europe’s future security strategy. This has become increasingly urgent, with Russian forces making gains in eastern Ukraine and a potential stalemate emerging on the battlefield. The summit is likely to reflect Europe’s desire to have a seat at the table in any eventual peace talks, though how this will unfold remains uncertain.

French President Emmanuel Macron, left, greets Britain's Prime Minister Keir Stammer

Potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks

The US-Russia talks, while not directly involving Ukraine or Europe, could set the stage for future negotiations. US officials are focused on understanding Russia’s position on peace and whether Moscow is willing to engage in a diplomatic resolution. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated that the meeting would also focus on broader issues in US-Russian relations, including the future of arms control and potential collaboration on global security challenges.

However, the absence of Ukraine from these talks has sparked concerns that any agreements reached could be disadvantageous to the country, especially given Russia’s demands for territorial concessions. Lavrov has repeatedly stated that Russia will not consider relinquishing any of its territorial gains, which is a key point of contention with Kyiv.