Donald Trump’s public standing has fallen to one of the weakest moments of his presidency, with new polling showing his approval rating matching the lowest level recorded by Joe Biden during the chaotic 2024 election year. The decline comes as Americans turn sharply against the war in Iran, grow increasingly anxious about the economy and express frustration over rising fuel prices and market instability.

The latest readings from YouGov and The Economist place Trump’s overall approval at 35%, down four points since late February and now sitting at the same depths reached by Biden after his disastrous debate performance in 2024. A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll puts Trump at 36%, while Fox News reports a 59% disapproval rating, the highest of either of Trump’s presidencies.

Although Trump has never enjoyed widespread popularity beyond his core supporters, the new downward trend is more sustained and more widespread than at any earlier point in his second term.

A deepening slide, not a statistical blip

Polling analysts say the slump cannot be dismissed as routine fluctuation. Trump’s net approval has fallen to –23 percentage points among the public and –19 among registered voters, worse than his earlier low of –21 in 2017. His smoothed average has held near –20 for weeks with no sign of recovery.

The president appears to have missed out on the “war bounce” enjoyed by previous administrations. While both Bush presidents saw double-digit boosts early in their Middle Eastern conflicts, Trump’s confrontation with Iran has produced the opposite effect.

Fifty-nine percent of Americans say they oppose the war, including nearly a quarter of Republicans. Confidence in Trump’s handling of the conflict has fallen from 39% in early March to just 30% in the latest YouGov/Economist survey.

War fatigue, high petrol prices and a troubled economy

Economic anxiety is accelerating the decline. Petrol prices have climbed above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022, and the stock market has dropped to its lowest point of the year, deepening public unease.

Polls show:

  • Only 14% of Americans believe the economy is improving, down from 22% in February.
  • About 75% say the economy is in poor condition, with a rising share calling it “very poor.”
  • Two-thirds say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions, a 10-point jump since January.
  • Approval of Trump’s handling of inflation has collapsed to 27%, down from 44% a year ago.

Financial strain is widespread: 63% of Americans report hardship from higher fuel costs, including 15% who call it severe.

Erosion inside Trump’s base

Perhaps most concerning for Republicans is the drop in support among Trump’s most loyal constituencies. Since the days before the Iran war began:

  • Approval among Trump’s 2024 voters is down six points to 76%.
  • Among conservatives, approval has fallen four points to 79%.
  • Among Republicans, down five points to 81%.
  • Even among self-identified “MAGA supporters”, approval has fallen five points to 92%.

Support among Republicans for Trump’s handling of Iran has fallen sharply, from 83% to 68%.

Republicans’ view of the economy has also shifted dramatically: only 29% now say conditions are improving, down from 50% in February.

Losses across key voter blocs

Trump is now underwater across every major demographic category:

  • Approval among white voters: down four points to 41%
  • Black voters: down one point to 10%
  • Hispanic voters: down one point to 34%
  • Voters without a university degree: down from 43% to 37%
  • Voters under 30: down from 32% to 24%

Independents have also soured dramatically. Their approval ticked up to 31% in early March but has since fallen to 22%.

Foreign policy troubles and governance concerns

Public scepticism about Trump’s foreign policy is growing:

  • 63% say his decisions have damaged America’s standing abroad.
  • Only 36% approve of his performance on foreign affairs.
  • 67% believe he is not focused on the country’s most important problems.

Majorities also say he has gone too far in expanding US power internationally, using executive authority, cutting federal programmes and implementing aggressive deportation policies (55% say he has overreached).

Midterm headwinds as Republicans brace for losses

Political analysts warn that the numbers present a serious challenge for Republicans heading into November’s midterms. The ruling party almost always loses seats, and the scale typically correlates with the president’s approval rating.

With Trump’s numbers sliding and resistance to the Iran war growing, forecasts now favour Democrats to retake the House. Betting markets also place them as narrow favourites to win the Senate.