Secret US–Bangladesh trade deal days before polls sparks transparency storm

Dhaka: While India has publicly showcased a favourable trade agreement with the United States, a very different and deeply controversial process is unfolding in neighbouring Bangladesh.

Dhaka is preparing to sign a Bangladesh, US trade agreement on February 9, just three days before the country goes to the polls on February 12, sparking widespread alarm over secrecy, legality and potential long-term economic fallout.

The deal is being pushed through by the unelected interim administration headed by Muhammad Yunus, raising sharp questions about mandate and intent.

Exporters, economists and political observers fear that a government with no electoral legitimacy is attempting to bind Bangladesh to an agreement whose contents remain completely hidden from the public.

Concerns have intensified after reports that the Yunus administration signed a non-disclosure agreement with Washington in 2025, barring any public scrutiny of the negotiations.

The disclosure was first reported by leading Bangladeshi daily Prothom Alo.

Why the timing has raised alarm

The biggest source of unease is the timing. The interim Yunus administration is expected to step aside shortly after the election, yet it is moving ahead with a trade agreement that could shape Bangladesh’s economy for years, if not decades.

Bangladeshi economist and public intellectual Anu Muhammad questioned the urgency in a Facebook post, asking why there was a sudden rush to “lease a port, import arms, and sign subordination agreements with the United States just a few days before the national election.”

He alleged that key agreements were being pushed through in a “completely non-transparent, illogical, and irregular manner,” claiming that foreign “lobbyists” had been placed inside the Yunus administration as advisers and were “desperate to make these agreements” before the polls.

Exporters fear the worst

The strongest resistance is coming from Bangladesh’s powerful export community, particularly the ready-made garments sector that dominates the country’s trade with the United States.

Bangladesh exports between $7 billion and $8.4 billion worth of apparel and textiles to the US every year, with ready-made garments accounting for nearly 96% of those exports.

The sector directly employs an estimated 4 to 5 million people, more than half of them women, making it economically and socially critical.

With US tariffs on Indian exports now reportedly down to 18% and Bangladesh currently at 20%, exporters fear the secret deal could further erode their competitiveness if unfavourable conditions are imposed.

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) senior vice president Inamul Haque Khan told Prothom Alo that the lack of consultation was deeply troubling.

“Based on the target for purchases from the US, it can be expected that the reciprocal tariff rate will come down to 15% (currently 20%). I had heard that National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman had streamlined this. I was surprised to see the signing of the agreement come just three days before the election. I still believe this should have been done after the election, because it carries major implications,” he said.

Will the next government be tied down?

Economists warn that the Yunus setup may be tying the hands of the next elected government by locking in commitments without political consensus.

Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, raised serious concerns over the process.

“Had the tariff agreement been signed after the election, political parties could have discussed it. It is also worth considering whether the hands of the incoming elected government are being tied,” he was quoted as saying by Prothom Alo.

Business leaders echo the same fears. Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Taskeen Ahmed said the absence of clarity made it impossible to assess the deal’s impact.

“It is not clear what benefits Bangladesh will gain from the agreement with the US. At the same time, business leaders are concerned about what conditions the agreement will include and which sectors may face negative impacts. They are also raising various questions,” he said.

Political allegations and US role

The controversy has also revived allegations surrounding the circumstances under which the Yunus administration came to power after the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024.

There are persistent claims that Yunus was installed with the backing of Islamist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami, alongside tacit support from Western powers.

Speaking at a virtual event in Kolkata, Hasina’s son Sajeeb Wazed alleged that Bangladesh was heading into a “sham” election designed to install a weak government loyal to foreign interests. He accused the interim regime of functioning in a “completely non-transparent” manner.

Bangladeshi journalist Sahidul Hasan Khokon told India Today Digital that the US role, while indirect, was geopolitically significant. “Ignoring this reality makes it difficult to fully understand both the events of 2024 and the direction Bangladesh may take going forward,” he said.

What is known about the deal so far

Very little is officially known about the agreement. Bangladesh was hit with a steep 37% tariff when US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in April 2025.

The rate was reduced to 35% in July and later brought down to 20% in August after negotiations. In June 2025, Dhaka signed a non-disclosure agreement with Washington, committing both sides to keep the talks confidential.

Last week, Bangladeshi Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman confirmed that the agreement would be signed on February 9, but did not disclose its contents.

With the interim Yunus government likely to exit days later, critics argue that the responsibility of implementing a far-reaching trade deal will fall on an elected government that had no role in negotiating it, a prospect that continues to fuel political and economic anxiety across Bangladesh.