Paris: Israel appears increasingly determined to remove Iran’s clerical leadership, in power since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Recent airstrikes have targeted not just military and nuclear sites but also symbolic regime assets like Iran's state broadcaster (IRIB), raising speculation that the goal may be full-scale regime change.

Analysts warn that while Israel may seek the removal of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the future of Iran post-regime change remains uncertain and fraught with risk. President Donald Trump recently warned, “We know where Khamenei is hiding,” but what would follow his removal remains unclear.

European leaders are haunted by the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011.

They resulted in the removal of dictators Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, but also in years of bloody mayhem in both countries.

Macron warns against repeating history

French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking at the G7 summit in Canada, strongly cautioned against military-led regime change:

"The biggest mistake today is to seek regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos," Macron said.

"Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003... or what was done in Libya the previous decade was a good idea? No!" he added.

Regime fall could empower Iran's military forces

Analysts, including Nicole Grajewski from the Carnegie Endowment, suggest that Israel’s airstrikes seem “more focused on regime change than non-proliferation.”

Analysts say ousting Khamenei and his fellow clerical leaders risks creating a vacuum that could be filled by hardline elements in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) ideological force or the Iranian military.

Who will be the successor?

One of the most prominent Iranian opposition figures is Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah. Though he’s declared the regime to be "on the verge of collapse" and accused Khamenei of “hiding like a frightened rat,” his support inside Iran is questionable.

His calls for restored Israel-Iran ties and his refusal to condemn Israeli airstrikes have also alienated many Iranians and other opposition groups.

Another major organised group is the People's Mujahedin (MEK), whose leader Maryam Rajavi told the European Parliament on Wednesday: "The people of Iran want the overthrow of this regime."

But the MEK is despised by other opposition factions and regarded with suspicion by some Iranians for its support of Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war.

"Part of the challenge in thinking about alternatives to the Islamic Republic in case it collapses is that there is no organised, democratic alternative," said Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa.

He said that while Reza Pahlavi is the opposition leader "who has by far the most name recognition both in and out of Iran", his supporters "tend to exaggerate his support inside the country".

"The only alternative -- and this is among the worrying scenarios -- is a coup d'etat by the Revolutionary Guards or changing from a theocracy to a military dictatorship."

Ethnic tensions could further destabilise Iran

Analysts also warn that a potential -- and often overlooked -- factor for future instability could be Iran's complex ethnic make-up.

Large Kurdish, Arab, Baluch and Turkic minorities co-exist alongside the Persian population.

"There will also be an effort to capitalise on ethnic divisions by hostile countries," said Grajewski.

Analysts warn of 'Iraq 2.0'

The Soufan Center, a U.S.-based think tank, concluded that Israel and its allies view the regime’s survival as a “strategic failure.” However, they caution that regime change could lead to an outcome even more destabilising than Iraq.

"The post-regime-change scenario remains unpredictable and could trigger regional destabilisation on a scale greater than Iraq, with global ramifications," they said.

(with AFP inputs)