Tehran: Intelligence reports surfaced Monday suggesting that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has authorised a contingency plan to flee to Russia if his security forces are unable to quell the intensifying nationwide protests currently shaking the Islamic Republic.

The "Plan B" strategy, first detailed in a report by The Times of London and cited by regional intelligence officials, involves the 86-year-old leader, his son and presumptive successor Mojtaba, and approximately 20 members of his inner circle. According to the report, a secure corridor to Moscow has been discussed with Russian officials to ensure the safety of the leadership and the potential transfer of state-linked assets valued at billions of dollars.

The reports come as Iran enters a second week of violent demonstrations sparked by a catastrophic economic collapse. The Iranian rial plummeted to a record low of 1.45 million to the U.S. dollar last week, following the reimposition of United Nations "snapback" sanctions and the fallout from a brief but devastating direct conflict with Israel late last year.

High Stakes and International Tensions

The atmosphere in Tehran has grown increasingly volatile following a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump, who declared on Friday that the United States is "locked and loaded" to intervene if the Iranian government uses lethal force against peaceful protesters.

“If Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters... the United States of America will come to their rescue,” Trump posted on social media, a move that Iranian officials have condemned as a violation of sovereign integrity.

In a televised address on Saturday, Khamenei adopted a dual tone of defiance and acknowledgement. While he conceded that the economic grievances of shopkeepers and the "bazaari" merchant class were "completely fair," he warned that "rioters" would be "put in their place."

Key Developments in the Unrest

  • Casualties Mounting: Rights groups, including the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), report that at least 16 people have been killed across 25 provinces since the unrest began on December 28.
  • Security Crackdown: In the western city of Malekshahi, reports of a "bloodbath" emerged Saturday after security forces allegedly opened fire on crowds. State media confirmed the deaths of several Basij paramilitary members in clashes.
  • The "Assad Precedent": Analysts have noted parallels between the reported "Plan B" and the flight of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Moscow in late 2024 after his regime collapsed.

A Regime in "Survival Mode"

Intelligence sources described the Iranian government as being in "survival mode." The current uprising is being characterised by experts as more dangerous than the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests because it has united the traditional working class with urban students against the theocratic system.

While the Kremlin has not officially commented on the reports of an escape plan, President Vladimir Putin has previously offered "mediation services" to de-escalate regional tensions. However, sources suggest Russia’s willingness to host the Iranian leadership may be a last-resort measure to prevent a total power vacuum in a region where Moscow still holds significant interests.