Venezuela crisis and Iran strike: Will China shield allies or secure US trade?

Beijing is walking a diplomatic tightrope. Following the dramatic US-led removals of the Iranian and Venezuelan leaders, China is prioritising trade stability with Washington over defending its fallen allies.

Pragmatism over partnership

The global order shifted recently when US special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a daring Caracas raid. Shortly after, a joint US-Israeli mission killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the heart of Tehran. While China reacted with anger, condemning these acts as illegal attempts at regime change, its response has been largely rhetorical.

For President Xi Jinping, hard-nosed pragmatism is the current priority. Beijing is focused on the upcoming summit with Donald Trump and maintaining the delicate trade truce established over the last year. Although China is the primary buyer of Iranian oil and has integrated Tehran into groups like BRICS, it views Iran’s strategic importance as limited compared to its broader relationship with the US. Experts suggest China is a fair-weather friend, willing to speak up at the United Nations but reluctant to take genuine risks for its partners.

Red lines and trade deals

China has long denounced unilateral US sanctions and supported Tehran’s nuclear claims. However, it maintains a careful balance in the Middle East, with trade and investment flows to Gulf states often eclipsing those with Iran. Beijing seeks to avoid heightening tensions that could jeopardise its own economic stability or security interests. Some analysts believe China may even welcome the diversion of US military resources away from the Indo-Pacific.

As the National People's Congress prepares to open, Chinese officials have signaled a willingness to communicate with Washington at all levels. While they insist on defending their own sovereignty and "red lines," the focus remains on the expected March summit between Xi and Trump. Negotiators are already preparing to meet in Paris to discuss business deals intended to stabilise this volatile yet vital bilateral equation.