With Kerala set to go to the State Assembly polls on 9 April, a pre-poll survey by Citizens Opinion Research and Evaluation (CORE) for Mathrubhumi offers an early snapshot of the state’s political mood. The survey provides insights into voter preferences and the relative standing of the major alliances across the state. 

The Kerala pre-poll survey engaged 31,706 respondents across all 140 constituencies between 23 and 30 March. Its primary aim was to assess public sentiment and evaluate the performance of political alliances ahead of the elections. Participants were asked a decisive question: which alliance’s candidate do you want to win in your constituency?

To make sense of the numbers, the survey divides leads into three brackets. A margin under 2.5% indicates a "Tight Fight," a lead between 2.51% and 4% suggests a "Slight Advantage," while any lead above 4% is seen as a "Strong Possibility" for the leading alliance to retain or capture the seat.

The following breakdown details the standing of candidates and alliances across 35 key battlegrounds:

  1. Udma: A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv. C.H. Kunhambu (CPM) leads with 46.58%, followed by the UDF’s K. Neelakandan (INC) at 40.14% and the NDA’s Manulal Meloth (BJP) at 13.28%. Lead: 6.44%.
  2. Nenmara: A strong possibility for the LDF. K. Preman (CPM) leads with 45.38%, followed by the UDF’s A Thankappan (INC) at 40.16% and the NDA’s A.N. Anurag (BDJS) at 14.46%. Lead: 5.22%.
  3. Chirayinkeezhu: A strong possibility for the LDF. Manoj B. Edamana (CPI) leads with 42.61%, followed by the UDF’s Remya Haridas (INC) at 30% and the NDA’s B.S. Anoop (BJP) at 27.39%. Lead: 12.61%.
  4. Kottarakkara: A strong possibility for the LDF. K.N. Balagopal (CPM) leads with 48.56%, followed by the UDF’s Aisha Potty (INC) at 42.06% and the NDA’s R. Reshmi (BJP) at 9.38%. Lead: 6.50%.
  5. Kochi: A strong possibility for the LDF. K.J. Maxi (CPI) leads with 45.45%, followed by the UDF’s Muhammad Shiyas (INC) at 39.99% and the NDA’s Xavier Julappan (BJP) at 13.56%. Lead: 5.46%.
  6. Trikaripur: A strong possibility for the LDF. Dr. V.P.P. Mustafa (CPM) leads with 48.48%, followed by the UDF’s Sandeep Varier (INC) at 42.52% and the NDA’s Ravi Kulangara (Twenty20) at 9.01%. Lead: 5.96%.
  7. Muvattupuzha: A strong possibility for the UDF. Mathew Kuzhalnadan (INC) leads with 47.27%, followed by the LDF’s N. Arun (CPI) at 41.80% and the NDA’s Sunny Thomas Kaduthazhe (Twenty20) at 10.93%. Lead: 5.47%.
  8. Cherthala: A strong possibility for the LDF. P. Prasad (CPI) leads with 49.36%, followed by the UDF’s K.R. Rajendraprasad (INC) at 41.36% and the NDA’s Adv. T.P. Anantharaj (BDJS) at 9.28%. Lead: 8.0%.
  9. Karunagappally: A strong possibility for the UDF. C.R. Mahesh (INC) leads with 50.53%, followed by the LDF’s Adv. M.S. Thara (CPI) at 38.29% and the NDA’s V.S. Jithin Dev (BJP) at 11.18%. Lead: 12.24%.
  10. Kovalam: A strong possibility for the UDF. M. Vincent (INC) leads with 49.06%, followed by the LDF’s Bhagath Rufus (CPM) at 37.79% and the NDA’s T.N. Suresh (BJP) at 13.15%. Lead: 11.27%.
  11. Irikkur: A strong possibility for the UDF. Sajeev Joseph (INC) leads with 52.2%, followed by the LDF’s Mathew Kunnappally (KC-M) at 40.17% and the NDA’s Sreenath Padmanabhan (Twenty20) at 7.63%. Lead: 12.03%.
  12. Kozhikode South: A strong possibility for the UDF. Adv. Faisal Babu (IUML) leads with 41.65%, followed by the LDF’s Thottathil Raveendran (CPM) at 34.55% and the NDA’s T. Raneesh (BJP) at 23.80%. Lead: 7.1%.
  13. Vallikkunnu: A strong possibility for the UDF. T.V. Ibrahim (IUML) leads with 50.34%, followed by the LDF’s C.P. Mustafa (LDF-IND) at 38.3% and the NDA’s M. Preman Master (BJP) at 11.36%. Lead: 12.04%.
  14. Chelakkara: A strong possibility for the LDF. U.R. Pradeep (CPM) leads with 51.00%, followed by the UDF’s Sivan Veettikunnu (UDF IND) at 30.54% and the NDA’s K. Balakrishnan (BJP) at 18.46%. Lead: 20.46%.
  15. Thiruvalla: A strong possibility for the UDF. Adv. Varghese Mammen (KC-J) leads with 40.64%, followed by the LDF’s Mathew T. Thomas (ISJD) at 34.91% and the NDA’s Anoop Antony Joseph (BJP) at 24.45%. Lead: 5.73%.
  16. Kayamkulam: A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv. U. Prathibha (CPM) leads with 47.97%, followed by the UDF’s M. Liju (INC) at 42.54% and the NDA’s Thampi Mettuthara (BDJS) at 9.49%. Lead: 5.43%.
  17. Angamaly: A strong possibility for the UDF. Roji M. John (INC) leads with 50.96%, followed by the LDF’s Saju Paul (CPI) at 39.78% and the NDA’s Promy Kuriakose (Twenty20) at 9.26%. Lead: 11.18%.
  18. Manalur: A strong possibility for the UDF. T.N. Prathapan (INC) leads with 43.22%, followed by the LDF’s Prof. C. Raveendranath(CPM) at 39.12% and the NDA’s Adv. K.K. Aneeshkumar (BJP) at 17.66%. Lead: 4.10%.
  19. Poonjar: A Tight Fight. The UDF’s Sebastian M (INC) leads with 36.75%, followed by the LDF’s Sebastian Kulathunkal (KC-M) at 34.94% and the NDA’s P.C. George (BJP) at 28.31%. Lead: 1.81%.
  20. Chathannur: A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv. R. Rajendran(CPI) leads with 43.02%, followed by the NDA’s B.B. Gopakumar (BJP) at 32.44% and the UDF’s Sooraj Ravi (INC) at 24.54%. Lead: 10.58%.
  21. Mattannur: A strong possibility for the LDF. Sanoj V.K. (CPM) leads with 58.89%, followed by the UDF’s Chandran Thillankeri (INC) at 29.91% and the NDA’s Biju K (BJP) at 11.2%. Lead: 28.98%.
  22. Ernad: A strong possibility for the UDF. P.K. Basheer (IUML) leads with 53.64%, followed by the LDF’s Adv. Shafeer Kizhisseri (CPI) at 41.02% and the NDA’s Adv. N. Sreeprakash (BJP) at 5.34%. Lead: 12.62%.
  23. Mananthavady (ST): A strong possibility for the LDF. O.R. Kelu (CPM) leads with 47.48%, followed by the UDF’s Usha Vijayan (INC) at 42.88% and the NDA’s Shyam Raj (BJP) at 9.64%. Lead: 4.6%.
  24. Varkala: A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv. V. Joy (CPM) leads with 44.93%, followed by the UDF’s Varkala Kahar (INC) at 36.47% and the NDA’s Sreenivasan Venugopal (BDJS) at 18.6%. Lead: 8.46%.
  25. Vadakara: A tight fight scenario where UDF's K.K. Rema (RSP) is leading with 46.78%, followed by the LDF’s M.K. Bhaskaran (RJD) at 44.8% and the NDA’s K. Dileep (BJP) at 8.42%. Lead: 1.98%.
  26. Kuthuparamba: A strong possibility for the LDF. P.K. Praveen (RJD) leads with 47.81%, followed by the UDF’s Jayanthi Rajan (IUML) at 40.63% and the NDA’s Adv. Shijilal (BJP) at 11.56%. Lead: 7.18%.
  27. Koduvally: A strong possibility for the UDF. Adv. P.K. Firos (IUML) leads with 50.86%, followed by the LDF’s Salim Madavoor (LDF-IND) at 40.98% and the NDA’s Giri Pambanal (BDJS) at 8.16%. Lead: 9.88%.
  28. Aroor: A slight advantage for the LDF. Daleema Jojo (CPM) leads with 45.58%, followed by the UDF’s Shanimol Usman (INC) at 41.79% and the NDA’s Adv. P.S. Jyothis (BDJS) at 12.63%. Lead: 3.79%.
  29. Tanur: A strong possibility for the UDF. P.K. Navas (IUML) leads with 50.12%, followed by the LDF’s P Mohammed Sameer (LDF-IND) at 42.08% and the NDA’s Deepa Puzhakkal (BJP) at 7.8%. Lead: 8.04%.
  30. Kothamangalam: A strong possibility for the UDF. Shibu Thekkumpuram (KC-J) leads with 48.12%, followed by the LDF’s Antony John (CPM) at 42.68% and the NDA’s Aji Narayanan (BDJS) at 9.2%. Lead: 5.44%.
  31. Kondotty: A strong possibility for the UDF. T. P. Ashrafali (IUML) leads with 52.2%, followed by the LDF’s P. Jiji (CPM) at 40.7% and the NDA’s P. Subrahmanian (BJP) at 7.1%. Lead: 11.5%.
  32. Kongad: A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv. K. Santhakumari (CPM) leads with 44.64%, followed by the UDF’s K.A. Thulasi (INC) at 36.75% and the NDA’s Renu Suresh (BJP) at 18.61%. Lead: 7.89%.
  33. Guruvayoor: A strong possibility for the LDF. N.K. Akbar (CPM) leads with 43.38%, followed by the UDF’s C.H. Rasheed (IUML) at 37.39% and the NDA’s Adv. B. Gopalakrishnan (BJP) at 19.23%. Lead: 5.99%.
  34. Kottayam: A strong possibility for the UDF. Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan (INC) leads with 50.64%, followed by the LDF’s Adv. K. Anilkumar (CPM) at 41.12% and the NDA’s P. Anilkumar (BDJS) at 8.24%. Lead: 9.52%.
  35. Balussery (SC): A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv. K.M. Sachin Dev (CPM) leads with 47.69%, followed by the UDF’s V.T. Sooraj (INC) at 42.24% and the NDA’s C.P. Satheesan (BJP) at 10.07%. Lead: 5.45%.

The last-day poll picture for 35 constituencies has been released. The survey covering the remaining 70 seats of the 140-member Assembly will be published in the coming days, offering a comprehensive view of Kerala’s pre-election scenario.