Newly released SIR list in the state shows a significant drop in registered voters in key constituencies across South-Central Kerala, including Thiruvananthapuram, Idukki, Kottayam, Ernakulam, and Thrissur. Unlike the continuous increase in voter numbers in these districts during the 2016, 2021 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the latest revision ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections shows a decline of 7,000 to 44,000 voters in these constituencies. The pressing question now is: which party will benefit from these “disappearing” votes?

Unexpected drop in Thiruvananthapuram

In the Thiruvananthapuram district, constituencies including Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram, Nemom, Parassala, Kovalam, and Neyyattinkara saw a total decline of 145,860 voters.

Constituency2024 voters2026 votersdecrease
Thiruvananthapuram202,503158,545-43,958
Vattiyoorkavu203,757165,272-38,485
Nemom205,113171,178-33,935
Kazhakkoottam194,043164,561-29,482

Historically, LDF held strong majorities in constituencies like Kazhakkoottam, Neyyattinkara, Varkala, Attingal, and Parassala in the 2016 Assembly elections, with Nemom shifting from BJP in 2016 to LDF in 2021 under V. Sivankutty. Only Kovalam (M. Vincent) remained favourable to UDF. Congress was pushed to third place in most constituencies. Apart from Nemom, where BJP finished second, the party also emerged as the runner-up in Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkavu, and Attingal.

Lok Sabha shifts and BJP surge

In the Lok Sabha elections, left-leaning voters in Assembly constituencies favoured LDF, but in Thiruvananthapuram, UDF candidate Shashi Tharoor won, although the party’s overall vote share decreased sharply between 2019 and 2024 in all constituencies.

Constituencies that recorded a decline in UDF votes

Parassala10,918
Kovalam9,179
Thiruvananthapuram8,781
Vattiyoorkavu8,682
Neyyattinkara8,085
Nemom7,371
Kazhakkoottam7,362

BJP's gains appear to have absorbed much of the UDF’s lost votes. For example, Kovalam (+6,284 votes) and Kazhakkoottam (+4,965 votes). Voter list revisions further decreased the voter numbers in these constituencies (Kovalam -18,488, Kazhakkoottam -29,482). Despite LDF holding majorities in the Assembly, BJP’s gains at the Lok Sabha level reflected the shift of UDF votes.

Thrissur: Big changes

Following the last Lok Sabha elections, NDA/BJP saw a significant surge in Thrissur. Constituencies with major voter reductions include Ollur (-25,852) and Thrissur (-28,020). Others, such as Wadakkanchery (-15,435), Nattika (-15,278), Chalakudy (-14,932), and Puthukkad (-12,652) also recorded large drops. Only Kaipamangalam(+4,891) and Chelakkara (+1,673) saw increases.

ConstituencyVoters in 2024Voters in 2026Decrease in Voters
Kodungallur192,501187,2125,289
Chalakudy194,140179,20814,932
Ollur214,247188,39525,852
Wadakkanchery217,221201,78615,435
Nattika218,705203,42715,278
Puthukkad205,029192,37712,652
Thrissur189,245161,22528,020

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP gained significant votes in Manalur (+61,196), Nattika (+66,854), Irinjalakuda (+59,515), Puthukkad (+62,635), and Ollur (+58,996), marking a 15,000–20,000 vote increase compared to 2019. Meanwhile, Congress lost an average of 10,000–15,000 votes per constituency. LDF largely retained its vote base, while UDF's vote losses formed the basis of BJP’s victories.

ConstituencyPartyVotes in 2019Votes in 2024
ManalurBJP44,76561,196
 CPM44,69553,183
 Congress63,42050,897
NattikaBJP48,17166,854
 CPM50,13152,909
 Congress52,55838,195
IrinjalakudaBJP42,85759,515
 CPM46,09145,022
 Congress57,48146,499
PuthukkadBJP46,41062,635
 CPI51,00649,943
 Congress56,84842,715
OllurBJP39,59458,996
 CPM47,37248,633
 Congress63,40647,639
GuruvayurBJP33,96745,049
 CPM44,69550,519
 Congress65,16057,925

Ernakulam: Major decline

In Ernakulam, despite a rising voter count in 2024, LDF lost significant urban support. The new voter list shows a drop of 28,829 voters across constituencies.

Tripunithura22,892
Paravur7,137

Vypin

7,048
Kalamassery4,750
Aluva4,578

The presence of the Twenty-20 party allied with the BJP in constituencies like Kunnathunad (42,701 votes in 2021) may shift the dynamics further, creating triangular contests in several Ernakulam seats.

ConstituencyUDF VotesLDF VotesBJP VotesTwenty-20 Votes
Kunnathunad49,63652,3517,21842,701
Perumbavoor53,48450,58515,13520,536
Kochi40,55354,63210,99119,676

Vypin

45,65753,85813,54016,707
Thrikkakara59,83945,51015,48313,897
Ernakulam45,93034,96016,04310,634
Kothamangalam57,62964,2347,97813,535

Kottayam & Idukki: Highland shifts

In Kottayam, the voter decrease ranges from 6,000 to 15,000 per constituency, potentially affecting all three fronts in 2026.

Key constituencies with reduced majorities in 2021:

KaduthuruthyMons Joseph4,25611,445
ChanganasseryAdv. Job Michael6,0599,736
PuthupallyOommen Chandy9,0449,408
KanjirappallyDr. N. Jayaraj13,70310,398
EttumanoorV.N. Vasavan (LDF)14,30310,052

In 2019, the Pala constituency delivered 66,971 votes to the UDF. After Jose K. Mani shifted to LDF, UDF votes dropped to 52,295 in 2024, a loss of 14,676 votes. Similar losses occurred in Kaduthuruthy (-14,047).

Idukki: Voter decline

In Idukki, constituencies including Devikulam, Udumbanchol, Thodupuzha, Idukki, and Peerumedu saw a decline of ~80,542 voters.

Devikulam166,678141,206-25,472
Peerumedu176,767155,273-21,494
Udumbanchol169,950149,111-20,839
Idukki186,522166,497-20,025
Thodupuzha191,618187,167-4,451

Traditionally, Devikulam and Udumbanchol were LDF strongholds, while Thodupuzha supported UDF (PJ Joseph). However, Lok Sabha trends show a shift, with UDF losing substantial votes between 2019 and 2024.

Idukki12,870
Peerumedu11,834
Thodupuzha9,442
Moovattupuzha8,818
Kothamangalam4,551

NDA influence: BJP-led NDA increased votes in Peerumedu (+2,234) and Thodupuzha (+1,190), offsetting some UDF losses. LDF MLAs retained Assembly majorities despite voter reductions.