Thiruvananthapuram: With just 5 days left for vote counting, both the LDF and UDF are brimming with confidence. The NDA, meanwhile, is hopeful of securing gains that could lead to a hung assembly if neither front crosses the majority mark. The CPM is confident of winning 78 seats, while the Congress asserts it will secure at least 80.

The CPM state secretariat, in its preliminary assessment soon after polling, concluded that there is no situation that would disrupt continuity in governance. After reviewing district-wise data, the party has pegged its assured tally at 78 seats. However, it also acknowledges that it may not be able to match its 2016 and 2021 performance, when it currently holds 98 seats. The party notes a shift of Muslim votes towards the UDF, but believes Ezhava votes have largely stayed with the LDF, reinforcing its expectation of a third consecutive term.

On the other hand, the Congress and the IUML estimate a strong pro-UDF wave across all districts. They claim 80 seats are certain, with around 15 constituencies too close to call. According to their assessment, minority votes have largely favoured the UDF, and even Ezhava votes — mainly in districts like Kollam — have shown unusual support for the front.

The Congress further claims that the Left could be wiped out in four districts. With growing confidence about securing a majority, discussions around the chief minister’s post have also gained momentum within the UDF.

The NDA, for its part, expects to win at least four seats. It argues that if both the UDF and LDF are restricted to around 68 seats each, it could emerge as the strong force in forming the government.

There is broad agreement that youth voters have played a decisive role in this election — their choices could ultimately make or break the fortunes of the competing fronts.