New Delhi: Indian intelligence agencies have flagged the growing alignment between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) as a serious emerging threat to India’s internal security, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir.

According to intelligence assessments, the ISI has facilitated an operational understanding between ISKP and LeT primarily to counter Pakistan’s internal insurgent challenges, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the Balochistan Nationalist Army (BLA). Pakistan’s security forces have suffered sustained losses in recent months, especially in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, forcing the army to seek unconventional allies.

However, Indian agencies warn that the arrangement carries significant spillover risks for India.

Deniability at the core of Pakistan’s strategy

Officials say Pakistan’s key objective is to use ISKP as a “deniable proxy” against India. Unlike Lashkar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Mohammed, ISKP is not headquartered in Pakistan but operates mainly out of Afghanistan. This allows Islamabad to distance itself from any future attacks carried out on Indian soil.

“The advantage for Pakistan is deniability. If ISKP strikes India, the trail does not directly lead back to Islamabad,” a senior Intelligence Bureau official said.

Jammu and Kashmir a key focus

Indian intelligence inputs indicate that ISKP is actively planning to expand its footprint into India, with Jammu and Kashmir identified as the primary target zone. While the group is currently focused on consolidating its presence in Balochistan, preparations for India-centric operations are already underway.

Officials say ISKP possesses the capability to carry out high-impact attacks, making its potential entry into Kashmir a significant security concern.

From adversaries to allies

Ironically, ISKP initially viewed Pakistan as an un-Islamic state aligned with Western interests and was openly hostile towards it. However, the rise of a common adversary, the Afghan Taliban, has led to a recalibration of ties.

Under the new arrangement, the ISI is expected to provide logistical, financial, and arms support to ISKP, including channels for weapons and ammunition supply.

While LeT and ISKP are jointly engaged against the TTP and BLA in Balochistan, intelligence officials say operations targeting Kashmir would be handled independently by ISKP. This separation is deliberate, aimed at shielding Pakistan from international scrutiny, particularly from bodies like the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Propaganda signals expansion

ISKP has openly articulated its India ambitions in its propaganda magazine Yalgaar, which contains detailed references to expansion plans into Indian territory. Intelligence agencies describe this as a troubling signal of intent.

On the ground, ISKP, with LeT support, is reportedly setting up armed squads in Balochistan, targeting Baloch nationals and insurgent groups opposed to Pakistan. Officials expect a sharp rise in violence as rival militant factions clash.

Recent meetings between ISKP and LeT leaders reportedly culminated in a formal alliance, symbolised by the exchange of pistols and pledges to eliminate all adversaries, including India.

Indian agencies say they are closely monitoring developments both in Balochistan and along potential infiltration routes into Jammu and Kashmir.