Chennai: With only hours left until the counting of votes for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections begins, discussions are intensifying over whether ‘Thalapathy’ Vijay, through his party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), will emerge as a decisive force in the state's politics. While the DMK-led alliance and the AIADMK-BJP combine are familiar faces in Tamil Nadu, the spotlight this time is firmly on Vijay and the performance of the TVK founded by him.

Vijay aims to follow in the footsteps of legends like MGR and Jayalalithaa, who successfully transitioned from cinema to politics. His campaign focused on promises for the youth, women and the fishing community. He seeks to establish himself as a third alternative to the ruling DMK, the Opposition AIADMK and the BJP.

Despite personal controversies and accidents during rallies posing challenges, political observers and senior leaders from rival parties believe he could bring a major shift to Tamil politics. Notably, Vijay chose to leave his film career at its peak to dedicate himself to politics.

As candidates await the verdict, the state is witnessing its most unpredictable three-way contest in decades. Vijay has previously labelled the DMK as his primary political rival and the BJP as his ideological enemy.

Potential scenarios and alliances

If exit polls, such as the one by Axis My India, hold true, the TVK could emerge as the single largest party with 98-120 seats in the 234-member Assembly. In such a scenario:

The Congress connection: Vijay might approach the Congress (which contested 28 seats) and other smaller parties to form a government. Interestingly, Vijay refrained from heavy criticism of the Congress during his rallies, and his father, S A Chandrasekhar, had previously urged him to align with them.

The AIADMK factor: If TVK is in a position to form a government, Vijay might seek support from the AIADMK. While Vijay has vowed not to join any alliance involving the BJP (referring to them as "communal forces"), he has shown respect for the Dravidian legacy of MGR.

Outside support: There is a possibility that Vijay might seek "outside support" from parties like the AIADMK to maintain a majority without compromising his core ideology. This mirrors the 2013 AAP-Congress arrangement in Delhi, though such setups are often historically unstable.

The DMK dilemma: If the DMK fails to reach a majority and TVK gains major ground, Vijay could potentially support a coalition to keep the BJP out, perhaps even negotiating for a Deputy Chief Minister post. However, unlike the Karnataka model where Congress played a kingmaker role for the JD(S), the DMK remains a dominant force here, making negotiations complex.

Challenges and confidence

Vijay faces external pressures, including the release of his film 'Jana Nayagan' and ongoing scrutiny regarding the Karur tragedy. However, politics often breeds unexpected alliances; observers suggest he might even support the AIADMK simply to keep M K Stalin out of power.Amidst these speculations, the TVK leadership remains bullish. Chief Coordinator K A Sengottaiyan expressed confidence that the party would secure 180 to 200 seats, dismissing the need for any alliance and aiming for an absolute majority.