As the October 8 assembly election results approach, three major pollsters—Dainik Bhaskar, India Today-CVoter, and Peoples Pulse—are projecting a significant advantage for the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance in Jammu and Kashmir. All three surveys indicate that the coalition is likely to secure at least 30-35 seats in the 90-member assembly. However, some pollsters predict a significant victory for the BJP in the Union Territory, with PDP not in the picture.

According to the Peoples Pulse survey, NC could secure between 33 to 35 seats, while the Congress is expected to win between 23 to 27 seats. This shift in voter sentiment may reflect a desire for stability and collaboration amid ongoing political tensions in the region.

The India Today-CVoter exit poll adds another layer to this narrative, forecasting a BJP victory with an estimated 27 to 31 seats, while the NC is predicted to gain around 11 to 15 seats and the PDP a minimal 0 to 2 seats. This could indicate a decline in support for the PDP, which has historically been a significant player in Jammu and Kashmir politics.

Dainik Bhaskar has given an advantage to the National Conference-Congress alliance, projecting between 35 and 40 seats. The BJP is expected to secure 20 to 25 seats, while the People's Democratic Party (PDP) is projected to win 4 to 7 seats.

However, according to Gulistan News, the BJP is projected to secure between 28 and 30 seats in the upcoming assembly elections. The Congress is expected to win 3 to 6 seats, while the National Conference (NC) is also projected to secure between 28 and 30 seats. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) is anticipated to win 5 to 7 seats, with others expected to capture between 8 and 16 seats.

According to the NDTV poll of polls, the Congress-National Conference alliance is projected to secure at least 43 seats, bringing them very close to a majority. The BJP is expected to win 27 seats, while the People's Democratic Party (PDP) is projected to secure 8 seats.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the election campaign witnessed intense debates between major political parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, National Conference (NC), and People's Democratic Party (PDP). 

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Exit poll results

Decade-Long Wait for Democracy

After a ten-year gap, Jammu and Kashmir held its assembly elections in three phases between September 18 and October 1. The voter turnout varied across phases, with 61.38% in the first phase, 57.31% in the second, and 65.48% by the close of the third phase. The final results are expected on October 8.

How Exit Polls Have Performed in J&K?

In 2014, exit polls predicted a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir. The PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, was forecasted to be the single-largest party with 32-38 seats, while the BJP was expected to follow with 27-33 seats. The National Conference (NC) was predicted to win 8-14 seats, with the Congress expected to secure between 4 and 10 seats.

When the actual results were declared, the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP secured 25, the NC finished with 15, and the Congress ended up with 12 seats. This election resulted in a coalition between the PDP and BJP, but the alliance collapsed before its full term.