The United States Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has stated that India regards China as its “primary adversary”, while Pakistan continues to view India as an “existential threat”. This revelation forms part of the DIA’s Worldwide Threat Assessment report for 2025, providing insight into regional security strategies and military postures across South Asia.

According to the assessment, New Delhi considers Islamabad a secondary challenge, even amid recent cross-border hostilities. “India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more an ancillary security problem to be managed, despite cross-border attacks in mid-May by both India’s and Pakistan’s militaries,” the report said.

Nuclear threats and strategic modernisation

The DIA report flags Pakistan’s ongoing pursuit of battlefield nuclear weapons aimed at counterbalancing India’s conventional military edge. “Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernization effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage,” it stated.

Highlighting further concerns, the report noted: “Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control. Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries.” WMD refers to weapons of mass destruction.

India’s and Pakistan’s China calculus

India is actively strengthening regional partnerships across the Indian Ocean to counter China’s expanding military influence. The DIA noted that although both countries undertook disengagement measures along the Line of Actual Control in 2023, it “did not resolve underlying issues from the 2020 Galwan clash”.

Pakistan remains a significant recipient of Chinese military and financial support, the report highlighted. Frequent joint military exercises are held between the two nations, with the report adding, “Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China.” However, this bilateral cooperation has been tested following repeated attacks targeting Chinese nationals in Pakistan. In 2024 alone, seven Chinese workers were killed.

Cross-border military escalation in May

Detailing recent hostilities, the DIA cited a military exchange that followed Indian missile strikes on terror infrastructure within Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. The strikes were carried out in response to a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir in late April.

“The missile strike provoked multiple rounds of missile, drone, and loitering munition attacks, and heavy artillery fire, by both militaries from 7 to 10 May. As of 10 May, both militaries had agreed to a full ceasefire,” the report added.

India’s military trajectory

The report anticipates that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will continue prioritising India’s military modernisation, strategic assertiveness, and deterrence capability, particularly in the context of China.

“India almost certainly will continue promoting its ‘Made in India’ initiative this year to build its domestic defence industry, mitigate supply chain concerns, and modernise its military,” the report said. It cited recent milestones such as testing the nuclear-capable Agni-I Prime MRBM and Agni-V MIRV missiles, and the commissioning of a second nuclear-powered submarine.

Continued defence reliance on Russia

Despite reducing its acquisition of Russian-origin military platforms, India continues to depend on Moscow for essential spare parts. “Under Modi, India has reduced its procurement of Russian-origin military equipment but still relies on Russian spare parts to maintain and sustain its large inventory of Russian-origin tanks and fighter aircraft that form the backbone of its military's ability to counter perceived threats from China and Pakistan,” the DIA noted.

Pakistan’s volatile western front

On the western front, Pakistan faces ongoing border tensions and militant violence. The report stated that over 2,500 people were killed in militant attacks in Pakistan during 2024, involving groups such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Baloch separatists.

Efforts to ease tensions with Iran have emerged following tit-for-tat airstrikes in January 2024. However, friction with Afghanistan persists, with border clashes and artillery shelling continuing into March 2025.