Singapore: India’s conventional threat perception in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to focus on Pakistan and China, according to a report released ahead of an international defence dialogue scheduled this weekend in Singapore.

The report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies said any future “major conventional war” involving India would likely remain localised in nature, noting that India’s surgical strikes so far have been directed only against Pakistan.

The IISS Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment report, dated May 28, said India is preparing its Army for large-scale conventional combat operations due to its long-standing territorial disputes with its two nuclear-armed neighbours, Pakistan and China.

The London-based institute said India’s border tensions with China have remained more traditional in nature and are “unlikely to escalate to the same level as the Indo-Pakistan conflicts.”

“As such, India will continue to have militarised borders with China and Pakistan,” the 150-page report added.

Beyond the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), India is unlikely to play an active military role in the wider Asia-Pacific and will likely seek to avoid being drawn into a US-China conflict over Taiwan, for example, the report said.

For India, the pacing challenge is a "hybrid" situation of "no war but also no peace" with China and Pakistan, according to the report.

Indian military doctrine continues to evolve, and its potency improves as the lessons learned from operations against Pakistan and China feed back into its ecosystem, the report said.

India's formative experiences of fighting multiple wars, meanwhile, have shaped its military doctrine, at least as far as it relates to Pakistan, it added.

New Delhi's political will to shift the boundaries of what constitutes an acceptable military response to what it sees as cross-border terrorism has also played a significant role, the report continued.

The evolution of the surgical strikes against Pakistan in 2016, 2019 and 2025 suggests how operational practices could help shape doctrinal development as well. Practice informs perceptions, to some extent.

Assumptions underpinning military doctrines, including whether they are defensive or offensive in nature when it comes to force projection, therefore provide important indicators for what future war fighting might look like. How well-tested those assumptions are further suggests how confident political leaders could be in the military's planning and preparation for conflict.

The report also highlights the focus of major military doctrines of both the United States and China on Taiwan, with the US aiming for Taiwan's sustainable defence and resilience, while China envisions a counter-intervention strategy to keep the US and its allies at bay, the report said.

The dossier examines the other major geopolitical chokepoints in the Indian Ocean region -- including the Malacca Strait -- through the perspective of strategic competition and the interests of island states that are shaping regional security dynamics. With China building its capacity in the region, competition over military presence is increasing, according to the report.

International defence delegates, including ministers, are expected at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue to be held from May 29 to May 31. PTI