Exit polls have long been a subject of debate, often accurately capturing election trends but sometimes missing the mark. In the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, most pollsters predicted a landslide victory for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and the actual results closely mirrored these projections.

Exit Poll Predictions vs. 2020 Results

  • Jan Ki Baat predicted 55 seats for AAP and 15 for BJP.
  • India Today-Axis My India gave AAP 59-68 seats and BJP 2-11.
  • Times Now forecasted 47 for AAP and 23 for BJP.
  • NewsX-Neta projected 55 seats for AAP and 14 for BJP.
  • India News-Nation predicted 55 for AAP and 14 for BJP.
  • ABP News-CVoter estimated 51-65 for AAP and 3-17 for BJP.

The final tally proved the pollsters largely correct, with AAP securing 62 seats and the BJP winning 8. Congress failed to make any gains.

What Do 2025 Exit Polls Predict?

Unlike 2020, where AAP was the clear frontrunner, the latest 2025 exit polls indicate a shift, with the BJP projected to take the lead in a tight race:

  • Matrize: BJP 35-40, AAP 32-37, Congress 0-1.
  • People’s Pulse: BJP 51-60, AAP 10-19, Congress 0.
  • People’s Insight: BJP 40-44, AAP 25-29, Congress 0-2.
  • P-Marq: BJP 39-49, AAP 21-31, Congress 0-1.
  • JVC: BJP 39-45, AAP 22-31, Congress 0-2.

While all pollsters show a decline in AAP’s numbers, the extent of BJP’s advantage varies. Some predict a comfortable lead, while others suggest a close contest.

The Election Commission will declare the final results on February 8. With exit polls showing a major shift from 2020, the big question remains—will they get it right again, or will the actual results defy predictions?