Patna: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is heading toward a massive victory in the Bihar Assembly elections, with ECI trends at 2:50 pm showing the alliance leading in 204 of 243 seats. The BJP–JD(U) coalition has far exceeded both expectations and exit poll projections, marking what could be one of its strongest mandates in recent history.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), meanwhile, has been reduced to a lead in just 34 seats, facing one of its worst electoral setbacks.

Exit polls get Bihar right

Bihar has a long history of proving exit polls wrong. But this time, the pollsters got the mood right, predicting a clear victory for the NDA. What they couldn’t fully capture, however, was the scale of the wave, with only Poll Diary coming closest by predicting an upper range of 184–209 seats for the NDA.

The accuracy is notable because Bihar has flipped exit poll predictions in its previous two elections:

Bihar 2020 exit polls vs reality

Exit polls prediction:

MGB: 125 seats

NDA: 108 seats

Actual result:

NDA: 125

MGB: 110

Exit polls forecasted a narrow Mahagathbandhan win—but the NDA pulled ahead.

Bihar 2015 Exit Polls vs Reality

Exit polls prediction:

Most predicted an NDA victory

Actual result:

MGB: 178 seats

NDA: 58 seats

Pollsters were completely off the mark that year as well.

Against this backdrop, the 2025 predictions stand out as the most accurate in a decade—capturing the direction of the wave even if not fully the magnitude.

Exit poll projections for 2025

Most agencies predicted an NDA win between 120 and 172 seats, while the MGB was projected at 65 to 118 seats. Only Poll Diary hinted at a landslide for the NDA.

Poll Diary (Most Accurate):

NDA: 184–209

MGB: 32–49

Record turnout strengthened the trend

Bihar witnessed one of its highest voter turnouts ever:

65% in Phase 1 (Nov 6)

67.14% in Phase 2 (Nov 11)

Analysts had linked the surge, particularly among women, to voter enthusiasm for welfare schemes, and the counting trends now reflect that momentum.

NDA moves far beyond predictions

With the NDA crossing 204 seats in trends, the alliance looks set for one of its biggest victories in Bihar’s political history. The performance far exceeds average exit poll numbers and showcases a strong backing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.