As Bihar prepares for counting on November 14, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar faces an unusual paradox: exit polls overwhelmingly predict his coalition’s victory, yet doubt swirls about whether he will remain chief minister. The man who has executed more political U-turns than any contemporary Indian politician now sits atop a coalition he barely controls, overshadowed by deputy chief ministers appointed specifically to check his authority.

From Dominance to Dependency (2020-2022)

The 2020 Bihar elections marked a watershed. While the NDA won, Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) plummeted to just 43 seats compared to the BJP’s 74, the first time in their 15-year alliance that the saffron party held more seats. The BJP immediately signalled its new dominance by appointing Tarkishore Prasad and Renu Devi as deputy chief ministers, both figures of limited stature, chosen to constrain Kumar’s authority.

Frustrated by diminished clout and the BJP’s cultivation of rival Chirag Paswan’s LJP, Kumar made his first dramatic move. On August 9, 2022, he resigned, severed ties with the BJP, and joined the opposition Mahagathbandhan with Tejashwi Yadav returning as deputy chief minister.

The Opposition Gamble and Its Collapse (2022-2024)

For 18 months, Kumar hosted the opposition INDIA bloc, positioning himself as a potential prime ministerial candidate. Yet the coalition proved dysfunctional. Congress unilaterally launched campaigns without consultation. Seat-sharing negotiations stalled. By January 2024, Kumar concluded the opposition couldn’t win, and his party faced extinction if confined to opposition benches.

He rejoined the NDA on January 28, 2024, for his ninth term as chief minister.

The BJP’s Calculated Assertion

This time, the BJP made its intentions unmistakable. Instead of reappointing the relatively pliant previous deputies, it elevated Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, two leaders who had built reputations attacking Kumar relentlessly.

Choudhary, a 56-year-old OBC Kushwaha leader, had worn a saffron turban in 2022, vowing not to remove it until Kumar was “dethroned.” Sinha, a 57-year-old upper-caste leader, had previously confronted Kumar as Assembly Speaker, even omitting his name from official invitations.

An unnamed BJP leader revealed the strategy: “The idea is to run the government on equal terms while the BJP will allow Nitish to keep his primacy as CM.” Unlike Kumar’s previous loyal deputy, Sushil Kumar Modi, these men brought explicit political ambitions.

The 2025 Election: Exit Polls and Uncertainties

As two phases of voting concluded on November 11, most exit polls project an NDA landslide of 133-167 seats, well above the 122-seat majority threshold. The notable exception: Axis My India predicted a tighter 121-140 range, suggesting potential coalition vulnerability.

The deputy chief ministers’ own electoral performances in Tarapur (Choudhary) and Lakhisarai (Sinha) will signal internal BJP dynamics. Victories would strengthen their positions for expanded authority post-result.

The Unspoken Question

Home Minister Amit Shah has deliberately avoided naming Kumar as the NDA’s chief ministerial face, stating only that the process remains “constitutional” and determined by MLAs post-election. This calculated ambiguity masks serious jockeying within the coalition.

If the NDA wins decisively, the BJP leadership may claim the chief minister’s post, potentially elevating Choudhary as successor. Chirag Paswan’s allocation of 29 seats, despite winning only one in 2020, provides the BJP additional leverage to expand its chief ministerial options.

The Reckoning Arrives

November 14 will reveal whether Kumar’s numerical victory translates into political defeat. The exit polls suggest an NDA triumph. But whether Kumar remains chief minister depends less on election results than on backroom negotiations, where Choudhary and Sinha now wield substantial influence beyond their formal positions.

In Bihar’s volatile politics, one certainty endures: Nitish Kumar’s political journey will contain at least one more dramatic chapter.