Assam holds its breath as the May 4 results approach, with the state’s political future potentially resting in the hands of one veteran leader: Hagrama Mohilary. After a period of bitter rivalry, Mohilary has steered his Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) back into a partnership with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), positioning himself as the man who could decide the next government.

The man behind the Bodo vote

Mohilary is no ordinary politician. He is the most prominent tribal leader in the Bodoland region, a special autonomous zone in western Assam. Once an armed insurgent leader, he transitioned to mainstream politics in 2003 after signing a peace deal with the central government. His party now oversees a council that governs five districts and holds significant sway over 15 seats in the state assembly.

His influence comes from his ability to unite different groups. Unlike some leaders who focus only on one community, Mohilary has built a following among both tribal people and minorities, including Bengali-origin Muslims. This "social engineering" makes him a vital partner for the BJP, which hopes his popularity will help it cross the finish line if it falls short of a majority.

A strategic marriage of convenience

The relationship between Mohilary and the BJP has been a rollercoaster. Just a few years ago, top BJP leaders threatened him with jail time. However, the two sides have now put aside their differences in what experts call a "political compromise". For Mohilary, staying close to the party in power at the state and national level is a necessity. These special tribal councils rely heavily on government funding to function, making it difficult to survive in the opposition.

While the alliance is seen as a tactical move rather than a deep friendship, the stakes remain high. With voter turnout exceeding 85% in recent polling, the public’s verdict is sealed in the ballot boxes. Whether Mohilary returns as a dominant "chief" or a vital power broker will be revealed when counting begins this May