England are ranked fourth, with Opta giving the Three Lions a 9.7% chance of ending their long wait for World Cup glory.
With the FIFA World Cup 2026 knockout stage underway, Opta's latest supercomputer predictions have placed France as the favourites to win football's biggest prize, narrowly ahead of defending champions Argentina.
The projections, released on June 28, rank the 16 remaining teams based on their chances of progressing through each knockout round and ultimately lifting the World Cup trophy.
France tops the rankings with an 18.7% chance of becoming world champions. Didier Deschamps' side also has an 81.5% probability of reaching the Round of 16, a 58.3% chance of making the quarter-finals, 42.7% of reaching the semi-finals and 28.4% of advancing to the final.
Close behind are Argentina, whose title odds stand at 16.3%. Lionel Scaloni's side boasts the highest probability of reaching the Round of 16 (89.2%) and is also the most likely team to reach the quarter-finals (70.5%) and semi-finals (49.6%), but is marginally behind France in overall championship probability.
Spain completes the top three with a 13.5% chance of winning the tournament. The European giants have an 85.2% likelihood of progressing to the Round of 16 and a 22.7% chance of reaching the final.
England are ranked fourth, with Opta giving the Three Lions a 9.7% chance of ending their long wait for World Cup glory. They have an 84% probability of reaching the last 16 and an 18.6% chance of making the final.
Five-time champions Brazil are fifth in the projections. Despite entering the tournament as one of the traditional favourites, Brazil's title chances stand at 6.5%, with a 13.7% probability of reaching the final.
The Netherlands (5.1%), Portugal (4.7%) and Germany (4.4%) round out the teams with more than a four per cent chance of lifting the trophy.
Among the surprise contenders, Colombia have been assigned a 3.2% chance of winning the World Cup, while Norway follow with 3.0%. Hosts the United States are given a 2.5% chance of producing a fairytale triumph on home soil.
Switzerland (2.2%), Mexico (1.8%), Morocco (1.6%) and Belgium (1.6%) remain outsiders, while Japan are rated the least likely champions among the remaining teams with a 1.0% chance.
Opta's FIFA World Cup 2026 title favourites
| Rank | Team | Chance to win |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 18.7% |
| 2 | Argentina | 16.3% |
| 3 | Spain | 13.5% |
| 4 | England | 9.7% |
| 5 | Brazil | 6.5% |
| 6 | Netherlands | 5.1% |
| 7 | Portugal | 4.7% |
| 8 | Germany | 4.4% |
| 9 | Colombia | 3.2% |
| 10 | Norway | 3.0% |
| 11 | United States | 2.5% |
| 12 | Switzerland | 2.2% |
| 13 | Mexico | 1.8% |
| 14 | Morocco | 1.6% |
| 15 | Belgium | 1.6% |
| 16 | Japan | 1.0% |
While the Opta supercomputer offers a statistical snapshot of the tournament based on team strength and millions of match simulations, the knockout stage has historically produced dramatic upsets.
Published: 29 Jun 2026, 12:15 am IST
Related Topics
Subscribe to our Newsletter
Disclaimer: Kindly avoid objectionable, derogatory, unlawful and lewd comments, while responding to reports. Such comments are punishable under cyber laws. Please keep away from personal attacks. The opinions expressed here are the personal opinions of readers and not that of Mathrubhumi.
