Paris: French President Emmanuel Macron has taken a bold diplomatic step by announcing his intention to recognise a Palestinian state, a move analysts warn could provoke strong reactions from Israel while offering limited immediate gains for Palestinians.

Macron’s declaration over the summer, followed by a speech in New York at a UN General Assembly side conference on Monday, has already sparked international attention. According to the Elysee, the recognition is expected to be joined by nine other countries, including Australia, Belgium, Canada and the UK.

The initiative reflects growing global frustration over Israel’s actions in Gaza, including assaults and aid blockades following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack. Historic in scope, France and the UK would be the first permanent members of the UN Security Council to formally recognise a Palestinian state, and, along with Canada, the first G7 members to do so.

French foreign ministry spokesperson Pascal Confavreux emphasised the strategic nature of the move: “This recognition is not the end of our diplomatic efforts. It is not a symbolic recognition. It is part of a broader and very concrete action.” He referred to the French-Saudi roadmap intended to accompany the recognition.

Macron defended his decision on Israeli television this week, describing it as the “best way to isolate Hamas”. He also addressed concerns from France’s Jewish community, stating on X that he had urged the judiciary to strengthen measures “to antisemitism and its new forms” following Hamas’s attack.

Diplomatic sources anticipate possible retaliation from Israel, though full diplomatic severance is considered unlikely. Israel could respond by shutting down France’s consulate in Jerusalem or pressing ahead with West Bank annexations, experts suggest.

“There is going to be a lot of noise,” said one diplomat, requesting anonymity. “The Israelis are prepared for anything, and the French response is likely to be quite limited,” added Agnes Levallois, deputy president of the Institute for Research and Study of the Mediterranean and Middle East in Paris. She warned that “ultimately, it is the Palestinians who have the most to lose in this crisis,” stressing that sanctions against Israel would be necessary to create meaningful change.

A French presidential official described potential West Bank annexation as “a clear red line” and “the worst possible violation of UN resolutions”. Meanwhile, the US has voiced strong opposition. Ambassador Charles Kushner criticised unmet French conditions for the recognition on X, while Israel’s ambassador Joshua Zarka told AFP: “From the beginning, we have made it clear that recognition of a Palestinian state by France, without any conditions, would complicate the situation on the ground rather than advance peace.”

Palestinian representative Hala Abou Hassira in France called for further action, including “concrete sanctions, such as an arms embargo on Israel, a severance of relations with Israel which includes the total termination of the association agreement between the European Union and Israel”.

Sources close to Macron revealed that his decision crystallised during a visit to El-Arish on the Egyptian border in April, where he witnessed the humanitarian impact of the Gaza blockade firsthand. Facing domestic political pressures and limited progress in resolving the war in Ukraine, Macron views recognition as “a diplomatic lever to put pressure on Netanyahu”, according to an anonymous source.

Former ambassador Michel Duclos, a fellow at the Montaigne Institute, noted that the move could ultimately “become a success for France”, drawing parallels with France’s opposition to the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq under President Jacques Chirac.

AFP