Former US National Security Adviser (NSA) John Bolton has warned that China’s growing influence and its formation of a powerful axis in the Indo-Pacific region should be a major concern for India. 

In an exclusive interview with IANS, Bolton asserted that the tensions between India and China are part of Beijing’s broader "hegemonic ambitions" across the region, particularly along its periphery.

"We see the pressure, most visibly now in East Asia – against Taiwan and against the Senkaku Islands, which is Japanese territory in the South China Sea. But, along China's land border, obviously, its last big conflict was with Vietnam in the late 1970s, but there have been a number of incursions and conflicts along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China. And I think, if I understand the perceptions in China, in the Indian military correctly, they see China as the major threat to India. And I think that’s correct," said Bolton, who served as NSA to former US President Donald Trump from 2018-2019 and as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

Ongoing Border Tensions and Diplomatic Efforts

Following the violent Galwan Valley clash in June 2020, India and China have been engaged in continuous talks through diplomatic and military channels to resolve tensions along the LAC. 

While both sides have agreed to maintain peace on the ground, they are yet to find a comprehensive resolution to the border issues. Efforts are being made to uphold peace and tranquillity in accordance with relevant bilateral agreements.

Despite these efforts, Bolton believes the situation depends largely on where China sees opportunities to advance its regional influence. 

"This is one of the complexities India is going to have to face, given the historical relationship with Russia and the Soviet Union before that, and the dependence India has had on Russia, particularly for sophisticated weapons systems," he said.

Growing China-Russia Axis a Concern for India

Bolton expressed concerns about the emerging China-Russia alliance, warning that it could put India in a difficult position. 

"But now Russia is selling those same weapons systems to China. So, India's biggest potential adversary is getting exactly the same weapons from Russia, with which Beijing is forming an increasingly powerful axis. That could leave India at a real disadvantage. And I think how this Russia-China axis develops – obviously, at this time, unlike the Cold War, China is the dominant partner – is going to be a significant issue for the Indian national security policy for the next quarter century, at least," Bolton said.

Diplomatic Engagements in Southeast Asia

As India grapples with these security challenges, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing to travel to Laos to attend the 21st ASEAN-India Summit and the 19th East Asia Summit. 

Chinese Premier Li Qiang will also be present for ASEAN events in Vientiane, raising the possibility of diplomatic engagements on the sidelines.

Jaideep Mazumdar, Secretary (East) at India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), mentioned the potential for bilateral discussions during the summit. 

"As is normal and usual on the margins of international conferences and meetings, the Prime Minister will have bilateral meetings with a number of leaders. These are all in the works, and you will get to hear of them as they happen," Mazumdar said when asked about the possibility of an India-China meeting during the event.

Strategic Implications for India

As China continues to assert its influence and forge alliances, India must navigate a complex strategic environment. Bolton's remarks highlight the evolving dynamics between China, Russia, and India, and the potential impact on India’s national security strategy in the coming years. 

The growing China-Russia axis, combined with China’s assertiveness along its borders, will likely remain a key concern for India as it seeks to balance its historical ties with Russia and its rivalry with China in the Indo-Pacific region.

IANS